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CAC Document No, lUl
ENERGY CONSERVATION IN ILLINOIS:
Reports I and II
by
Robert Herendeen
Ken Kirkpatrick.
James Skelton
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CAC Document No. lUl
Energy Conservation in Illinois
Reports I and II
by
Robert Herendeen
Ken Kirkpatrick
James Skelton
Energy Research Group
Center for Advanced Computation
University of Illinois at Urb ana- Champaign
Urbana, Illinois 6l801
December, 197^
OVERVIEW
The Energy Research Group has quantified the actual energy
savings from many potential energy conservation programs for the
state of Illinois. In Report I (July, 197M > a wide spectrum of
programs was evaluated approximately; in Report II (November, I97U),
nine specific programs were evaluated in much more detail. Both
of these reports are bound in this volume.
Our approach was deliberately broad; we recognized that
because of its pervasiveness energy can be conserved through
conservation, or change in consumption patterns, of goods and
services as well as of fuels.
The work was performed for the Illinois Office of the
Energy Coordinator on contract from the Illinois Commerce
Commission.
ENERGY CONSERVATION IN ILLINOIS: REPORT I
Prepared for the Illinois Office
of the Energy Coordinator
Energy Research Group
Center for Advanced Computation
University of Illinois
Robert Herendeen
Ken Kirkpatrick
James Skelton
11 July 19lh
The Energy Research Group (ERG) is carrying out research on energy
conservation in Illinois for the Illinois Office of Fuel Energy Coordinator
( IQEC ) . The object is to quantify the energy that can actually be saved
through various conservation schemes. The research plan involves, first,
an approximate quantification of the effectiveness of many different
schemes, and second, more detailed quantification for about 6 to 10 selected
measures. This report (Report I) lists the results of the first step.
In Report I we have computed the energy savings assuming that the
specified measure has been implemented. We have not worried about whether
it can be implemented, although each energy measure is, in our opinion, real-
istic. We have rated energy-saving potential on a scale from A to D; the
correspondence is:
Symbol Energy saved (percent of present Illinois use)
A 1.15 and greater
B 0.U0 - l.lU
C 0.15-0.39
D 0 - O.lU
The results are listed in Table 1, as described below.
Energy savings - This is almost always the direct energy (e.g.,
the gasoline in the tank) and does not include
additional indirect energy such as energy to
manufacture the car. An exception is for the
recycle of materials.
Payout time - time for implementation, for the energy
savings to be realized. These estimates
are coded as follows:
Time
0-3 years
3-10 years
> 10 years
Symbol
Short (S)
Medium (M)
Long (L)
Notes - Listings of other work, legal aspects, etc.,
as appropriate and known to us.
State access - to be filled out by IOEC and ERG.
We should make a few comments on "energy". First, energy savings are
in primary resource units, and include the losses in power plants, refiner-
ies, etc. Energy use in Illinois in 197*+ is estimated at k.l x 1015 Btu/yr.
This breaks down as follows:
% of
state use
Industrial (incl agriculture) 32
Commercial (incl most of 20
state gov't )
Residential 27
Transportation 21_
100
We have treated all types of energy equally. In some cases one may be con-
cerned with fuel type as well; this is particularly important for transpor-
tation (heavily dependent on petroleum) and commercial heat (gas companies
are refusing to grant new hookups).
Second, some of the options we list overlap (such as the effect of
improving insulation or reducing thermostat settings in residences); hence
one should be careful in adding the results for a total energy savings from
both measures, to avoid double counting.
Third, percentages are expressed in terms of the present 197^ Illi-
nois energy use, even though it might take years to achieve the savings
listed, at which time Illinois' energy use will be greater. We can be more
careful about this question in Report II.
Fourth, accuracy and availability of data varied greatly. In some
cases we were unable to quantify the energy savings, but because the mea-
sure was so attractive, we included it.
Fifth, the impacts of some measures are beyond ERG's ability to pre-
dict, either because they are so wide ranging or because they require
elasticity studies. These are generally broad policy measures like chang-
ing the electricity rate structure. We list these separately.
Sixth, we have not worried about the savings respending question;
that is, the energy impact resulting from the spending on money saved by
energy conservation (What if you ride the bus, sell your car, and spend the
money on a snowmobile?).
Calculations and backup data for these results are in worksheets and
notes in ERG's files, which are open for inspection.
Table 1.
Estimated energy savings from implementation of
energy conservation measures. Savings listed on a h part
scale:
Symbol
% of Illinois (197*0 energy saved
A
1.15 and greater
B
O.UO - l.lU
C
0.15 - 0.39
D
0 - O.lU
Time scale coded in three parts:
Symbol
Time (years )
S
0-3
M
3-10
L
> 10
Code is for ERG's filing system
Main headings are
1. Agriculture (A)
2. Commercial (C)
3. Industrial (i)
h. Illinois state government (G
5. Residential (R)
6. Transportation (T)
7. Broad policies
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NOTES
Saturation: The percentage of Illinois households which have the appli-
ance. The figures given are either for 1970 (Census) or 1972
(Merchandising Week). Saturations for most appliances are
of course increasing yearly.
Units per household: Takes into account the fact that a household may have
more than one of a given appliance.
Btu or kwh per unit per year: The energy consumed by the appliance in a
year based on "typical" usage as determined by surveys con-
ducted by the gas or electric industry. This figure refers
to the energy actually delivered to the home and ignores
losses in production, conversion, and transmission. At the
point of use one kwh (kilowatt-hour) equals 3^13 BTU (British
Thermal Unit).
Primary BTU: Refers to the amount of energy originally extracted from the
ground. It is always greater than the energy delivered to
the home. If it is delivered in the form of electricity, only
0.258 of the primary energy arrives, the loss being primarily
due to inefficiency inherent in electric generation. For
natural gas, the figure is 0.855. Thus an electric appli-
ance is typically less efficient than the same appliance using
gas, when primary energy usage is examined.
ASSUMPTIONS
It is assumed that half the refrigerators and freezers are "frost
free", and that half are 12 cubic feet and half are lU cubic feet.
One thousand hours per year of air conditioner use is assumed.
20
REFERENCES
A/
— 1972 Merchandising Week reports, data for Illinois.
— 1970 United States Census Bureau data for Illinois.
C/
— Tansil, John. Residential Consumption of Electricity 1950-1970, Oak
Ridge National Laboratory, 1973.
— American Gas Association data for East North Central region of United
States, which includes Illinois.
E/
— Electrical Energy Association nationwide averages, EEA 201-73.
F/
— Estimate by staff of Energy Research Group at the Center for Advanced
Computation, University of Illinois.
— This figure of UlOO x 10 BTU/year is the median value of various esti-
mates of 197^ Illinois energy from the Bureau of Mines and the
Department of the Interior.
H/
—3,692,000 households in Illinois as of July, 197^, according to Clyde
Bridges, Illinois Department of Public Health.
— Herendeen, Robert A. "An Energy Input-Output Matrix for the United
States, 1963: User's Guide", Center for Advanced Computation Docu-
ment No. 69, March h, 1973, University of Illinois, Urbana.
ENERGY CONSERVATION IN ILLINOIS: REPORT II
Prepared For The Illinois Office Of The Energy Coordinator
Energy Research Group
Center For Advanced Computation
University Of Illinois
Robert Herendeen
Ken Kirkpatrick
James Skelton
20 November, 197^
REPORT II
TABLE OF CONTENTS Page
Introduction
1. Comparison of Insulation Standards of the Illinois
Capital Development Board with Others 6
2. Review of Recent Actions in the United Spates on
Utility Rate Structures, Loan Programs to Encourage
Installation of Home Insulation, and Promotional
Advertisement 21
3. Conservation Potential of Solar Heating and Cooling
of Buildings , Including Water Heating 35
h. Comparison of Energy Efficiency of Home Heating Sources hh
5. Energy Savings From Recycling
A. Paper 5^
B . Aluminum
C. Soft drink and beer bottles and cans 62
D . Auto hulks 68
6. Energy Savings by Modal Shifts in Passenger Transpor-
tation Between Selected Illinois Cities TO
7. Energy Conservation Measures Within the Illinois State
Government :
A. Substitution of a Sticker System for the Present
Throwaway License Plate 91
B. Use of Returnable Bottles in All Soft Drink
Vending Machines in State of Illinois 91
C. Energy Saved by Considering "Life Cost" Rather
Than "First Cost" of an Appliance 92
8. Energy Used/Wasted By Gas Yard Lights, Gas Pilot Lights,
and Instant-on Television Sets 107
9. Review of Uses of Waste Heat From Power Plants and Coal
Gasification Plants 113
Energy Conservation in Illinois: Report II.
Introduction.
The Energy Research Group has been quantifying the energy to "be saved
through certain conservation measures in Illinois. In Report I we evaluated.
approximately, the savings from many different schemes. Report II contains
more detailed study on 9 specific measures, as outlined in the table of contents.
Before summarizing the results, we should note several things. (These
are repeated from Report I).
1. We are talking here of total Btus unless otherwise specified. We
are not distinguishing between specific fuels, e.g., petroleum
saved through less air traffic vs coal saved through less
throwaway steel containers.
2. We are discussing energy, not peak power. The requirement
for electric generating capacity is determined by peak
demand. It is possible that energy-saving measures may not
decrease peak demands (and vice versa). Whether we are
energy limited, or capacity limited, is a volatile issue.
(New York State's Public Utility Commission currently feels
energy limited because of the heavy dependence on oil for
electricity, as mentioned in Section 2-C. )
3. Energy savings are listed as a percentage of Illinois total
(direct and indirect) energy budget today (U.l x 10 ' Btu/year),
even though the measures discussed may take years to implement,
at which time Illinois' energy use will be greater. In some
cases (solar heating and cooling, for example), where retro-
fits are fairly unlikely and implementation will take a long
time (2 decades and more), we have used a projection of energy
use at that time.
h. In doing this project, we have dipped into several diverse
disciplines, from heating engineering to law. Sometimes we
have had to spread ourselves thin; there is no substitute
* R. Herendeen, K. Kirkpatrick, James Skelton "Energy Conservation in Illinois
Report I", Submitted to the Illinois Office of the Energy Coordinator, 11 July,
19lh.
for an expert. Many experts exist on the University of Illinois
Campus, particularly in the fields of housing and coal gasifi-
cation. Our discussions with them are referenced, and further
contact directly would be fruitful.
Below is a summary of the report.
Section 1. Insulation standards.
We have compared standards proposed by the Illinois Capital Development
Board (CDB) with those of the National Bureau of Standards, Federal
Housing Authority, New York State Public Service Commission, and others.
We find that as applied to a residential-sized building, the ICDB standards
are intermediate in effectiviness in suppressing heat loss by conduction.
However, there is only a 27% spread between the best and worst.
Section 2. Recent actions in the United States on utility rate structures,
loan programs to encourage installation of home insulation, and promotional
advert i sement .
We have reviewed activities by state public utility commissions.
Section 3. Solar heating and cooling of buildings.
About 25% of Illinois present energy demands could be met by flat-
plate solar collection. Acceptability is severely limited by economics,
especially regarding retrofits. However, rising energy prices make solar
heating and cooling (SHAC) much more viable than even three years ago.
If retrofits are still not possitle, but if a large acceptance is gained
for new construction, about 1.7% of Illinois' energy could be provided by
SHAC by 1985 (i.e., 1.7% of projected use at that time, based on 50% solar
dependence for 2/3 of new construction). "Realistic" projections made by
several industries on NSF contract in summer, 197^, give much lower
figures: 0.09-0.17%.
Section U. Energy efficiency of home heating sources.
Claims made by several protagonists in this issue, especially the
electric industry, were found to be exaggerated. We find that with reason-
able maintenance, the efficiencies (heat energy delivered to residence
total primary energy required) are as follows:
Source
Efficiency (%)
Coal
Oil
Gas
Electric
resistance
Electric
heat pump
60
26
36 to 52,
depending on climate,
Section 5. Potential energy savings from recycling.
A. Paper.
If recycling is defined as burning paper productively, about 1%
of Illinois' energy budget could be recovered (We have objections
to this kind of "recycling" however, see text). Recycling of paper
into paper is technology - limited, but could be improved from today's
23^ (most is "new scrap" ) to about k9%. The energy then saved is
equivalent to 0.09% of Illinois energy budget. One reason that
this figure is so small is that collection and transportation
energies of scrap have been included.
B. Aluminum.
Remelting aluminum takes 96% less energy than making it from
raw materials. This seems to imply great savings through recycling,
but two factors limit this. First, much aluminum is sequestered
in Ions term commitments (machinery, housing, electrical equipment)
and not available for recycle. Second, energy is needed to collect
and transport scrap. The net available savings today through all
possible recycling is thus about O.U2% of the U.S. energy budget.
Since much primary aluminum is made outside of Illinois, the
savings here would be even less.
C. Soft drink and beer bottles and cans
As discussed in the text, we define recycling as use of
returnable glass bottles, not remelt of cans or bottles. Shifting
present Illinois practice to a 100$ glass returnable system would
save 0.32$ of Illinois' energy budget.
D. Auto hulks
An energy equivalent to 0.67$ of Illinois* use could be saved
by making the approximately 723,000 new cars registered in Illinois
in 1973 of recycled metals. Much of the energy would actually be
saved out-of-state.
Section 6. Modal shifts in passenger transportation between selected
Illinois cities.
We find that effecting a shift from plane and car towards train and
bus for travel between the nine standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas
(i.e., large cities and surrounds) would save a rather small amount of
energy. A complete abandonment of the car and plane (for these trips
only) would save 0.07$ i-n direct fuel use; inclusion of indirect effects
would raise the savings to about 0.10$.
Section 7. Potential measures within the Illinois State Government.
A. Substitutions of a sticker system for the present
throwaway license plate.
Going to a plate that lasts five years would save 0.0015$
of Illinois • energy use.
B. Use of returnable bottles in all soft drink vending machines
in state offices.
Estimate was contingent on
receipt of bottle and can sales
data from IOEC . Data were not
delivered.
C. Energy saved by considering "life cost" rather than
"first cost" of an appliance.
We present a generalized framework for the calculation
and illustrate "by applying it to a comparison of room air
conditioners. For six different sizes we find that in all
cases the model with lowest life cost uses significantly
less energy then the model with lowest first cost. In
four out of six, the lowest cost strategy yields the maximum
energy savings .
Section 8. Gas yard lights, gas pilot lights, and instant-on televisions.
A. Gas lawn lights.
They use 0.10$ of Illinois' energy budget.
B. Gas pilot lights.
Pilots on ranges, water heaters, dryers, and furnaces use
about 1.1$ of Illinois ' energy. A conservative estimate of
how much of this is wasted is 0.30$ of Illinois' use.
C. Instant-on Television sets.
Between 0.05 and 0.10$ of Illinois' energy is used now by
this option. Solid state instant-on sets use less power than
tube type, and at least one large manufacturer (RCA) has
discontinued instant-on models, so the "problem" may be
solving itself.
Section 9. Uses of waste heat from power plants and coal gasification
plants.
We review them briefly.
1. Comparison of Insulation Standards of the Illinois Capital
Development Board -with Others.
We want to compare several others with those of the Illinois
Capital Development Board (ICDB) Ll] . We have been able to do this for
a "prototype" single family residence for heating requirements. For
larger buildings, and for air conditioning, we have not performed calcula-
tions because of their greater difficulty. The "degree-day" approach
is relatively valid for a shaded home; but for commercial buildings,
with their extreme insolation load, it is not. For such buildings,
factors other than insulation also become important: shading of windows,
orientation of building, required infiltration (there is a factor of six
depending on whether smoking is allowed).* There are several "model"
calculations available, (for example, National Bureau of Standards, Rand
Corporation) but we felt it was beyond our skills to (necessarily) evaluate
how good they are before using them.
Table 1-1 lists available standards and some information.
(We found that the Association of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air Condition-
ing Engineers (ASHRAE) does not promulgate standards since they are not
a regulating body).
Table 1-2 lists the standards, in terms of the insulating re-
quirements for walls, ceilings, floors, and windows and doors as they
apply to a chosen residential size building in Springfield, Illinois [2]
Table 1-3 lists the relative energy savings obtainable through
implementation of these standards. In each case only the effect of the
insulation on conduction is considered; infiltration losses are assumed
not to change.
Results are compared for three types of basements: unheated
crawlway, heated basement, and slab-on-grade. Details of the calculations
are in Appendix 1-A.
We must be careful to specify what we have calculated. We
have calculated the heat loss remaining after implementation of the
standards, from conduction only. We should note first that all standards
here are a big improvement over an uninsulated building (pre 19^0).
* ASHRAE guidelines recommend the factor of six for public buildings.
R.L. Bertschi of the University of Illinois Abbott Steam Plant has computed
the costs of the service of providing the extra infiltration for smokers
(private communication, 3 September, 197*0. He finds an energy cost of
k million Btu , and a dollar cost of about 9 dollars, per occupant per heating
season. Another cost of smoking!
The conduction heat loss for the 19^0 building is about 135 x 10 Btu/yr.,
or 1.7-2.U times that remaining after implementation of standards. The
insulation schemes listed here represent a Ul to 5&% improvement over no
insulation, and there is no more than a 27% spread between any of them in the
categories covered by the ICDB.
We see that the ICDB standards are of intermediate effectivness
for saving energy - better than those of National Bureau of Standards
(NBS), but not as good as those of the Federal Housing Administration
(FHA) or the New York Public Service Commission.
The differences are due to three factors. (Refer to Table 1-2).
First, and most important, is the "default" condition on wall insulation.
This says that as long as the opaque part of the wall has no more than a
certain U value (in the range of 0.08 - 0.10, which compares well with the
other standards), the window glass can have any U value such that the average
total wall U is no more a rather high value (0.23 for ICDB; 0.22 for
National Bureau of Standards).* FHA, on the other hand, specifies double
glazing for all windows.
Second, the ICDB ceiling U value is larger than that of the FHA.
Third, the foundation insulation and/or edge of slab insulation
U values are somewhat higher in the ICDB standards than in FHA's.
*ICDB additionally specifies that no more than 2% of wall area can be
single glazing; this has a small effect for our building. The actual
gross wall U comes out to be 0.215, assuming that if a window isn't single
glazed; then it is double. (The ICDB standard isn't explicit here) For
comparison, the gross wall U that results from applying the FHA standard
is 0.18, lh% lower.
Table 1-1. Comparison of Insulation Standards
U is listed in Btu/ft. /hr./°F. R is the reciprocal of U.
Temp. dep. refers to whether the standards shift with design temperature,
degree days, etc.
R/U refers to whether insulation is specified by R or U.
"Default" refers to the existence of several overlapping standards. For
example, the Illinois Capital Development Board specifies for walls that
l) opaque sections have IK0.10, and that single sheet glass comprise <_
2% of gross wall area, or 2) that gross wall average U<_ .23. Which of
l) or 2) applies depends on how much glass there actually is, and one
must check his actual design to find out.
Defaults make application of standards more difficult.
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Table 1-3. Heating energy loss (conduction only) remaining
after implementation of selected insulation standards _f or example residential-
type structure '
c)
Case Agency Unheated \ Heated , >, Slab on
, \ ncaocu , \ oj.au un , \
Crawl space Basement grade
1. 111. Cap. Dev. Board
197^
2. FHA - 1971*
3. Nat. Mineral Wool Assoc. - 197^
h. NBS - 1971*
5. Small Homes Council
(Electric Heat) - 1971*
6. NYS Public Svc. Comm. 197 0.93 0.93 0.90
—
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.83
0.90
1.35
-
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1.25
1.13
1.05
1.02
0.91*
a) Therefore, lower numbers mean better insulation, higher numbers mean poorer.
b) Normalized with respect to the heat loss by the Illinois Capital Development
Board Standards, where appropriate. The ICDB proposed no standard for
unheated crawlspace construction, so values are normalized with respect to the
FHA standard.
Actual heat losses: Unheated crawlspace, FHA: 55.8 x 10 Btu/yr;
Heated basement, ICDB: 70. k x 10 Btu/yr; Slab-on grade, ICDB: 77.6 x 10 Btu/yr,
c) As given in Table 1-1.
IT
Appendix 1-A. Calculation of Effects of Insulation Standards.
This computes the remaining conduction heat loss from the model
structure after introduction of the insulation assuming infiltration losses
are unchanged.
There are three cases: unheated cellar (or crawl space),
heated cellar, and slab-on grade floor.
The model building is a 30' x 60' - 1 story ranch type
with 260 sq. ft. of glass area.
L = length ~\
W = width \ (ft. )
H = height J
2)
AG = area of glass (ft.
UG = "U" value, glass
UW = "U" value, wall
UC = "U" value, ceiling
UF = "U" value, floor
UFO = "U" value, foundation
FC = a factor to account for the role of the attic and roof
over the ceiling
DD = No. of degree days in Springfield, Illinois
P = heat loss for perimeter of slab floor (Btu/hr/ft).
\
(Btu/ft2/hr/°F)
18
Case 1: Unheated cellar or crawlspace. The cellar is assumed to be at 50°
throughout the heating season of 200 days [9]. UC is approximately 0.9,
as determined from data in the same reference.
Heat Loss saving =
AG * UG * 2k. * DD
+ (2. * (L* W) * H - AG) * UW * 2k. * DD
+ L * W * UC * FC * 2k . * DD
+ L * W * UF * 2k. * 15. * 200.
(1)
Case 2: Heated Basement. We rely on information in the ASHRAE Handbook . [10]
from Donald Brotherson of the Small Homes Council (l8 October 197M , and from
ref. 11 (SHC provided much of the information in the ASHRAE Handbook).
The cellar is assumed to have 2 feet of wall above grade, and
exceed 5 feet below grade. The insulation standards require insulation down to
30" below grade; otherwise the foundation is uninsulated.
Above grade, the temperature differential is the same as for the
house. We assume that for the 30" below grade, the average temperature differ-
ential is the mean of that at the grade (that is, same as for house) and that
at 30" ( that is, house temperature minus average ground temperature). The
average temperature differential for Springfield between house and outdoors
is 27.5 (200 day heating season). The average between basement and ground is
650 - 550 = 10°. Therefore the average differential for the below-grade in-
sulation is (27. 5 +10) /2 = 18.8°.
The heat loss remaining for the heated basement house is thus given by
Eq_. (l), except that
a. the last line is deleted.
b. the following is added.
2* (L + W ) * 2. * UFO * 2k. * DD
(2)
+2. * (L + W) * 2.5 * UFO * 18.8 * 2k. * 200
19
Case 3. Slab - on - grade floor. A slab floor will lose about 1.5 Btu/
2
ft /hr. in this climate, except for a region 2 ft. wide on the perimeter
where edge insulation is important. We converted the "U" value of edge
insulation to a heat loss from that region using information in Ref. 10, p. 5,
(based on actual measurements).
To account for the slab floor, we again start with eq.(l), and modify
it this time:
a. the last line is deleted
b. the following is added:
(L - k.) * (W - k.) * 1.5 * 2k. * 200.
(3)
+2. * (L + W) * P * 2k. * 200.
P, the heat loss per foot of perimeter, was evaluated from Ref. 10
for the average temperature of Springfield during the heating season.
U of edge insulation p
(Btu/sq.ft/hr./°F) (Btu/hr . /ft . )
•29 18
•1^ 16
20
References - Section 1
1. "Energy Conservation Guide for the Construction of State Funded
Buildings", Illinois Capital Development Board, 20 April, 197^.
2. House is one story, 30' x 60' x 8'. See Appendix 1-A for calculations
and details.
3. "Minimum Property Standards for One and Two Family Dwellings,
Revision No. 1, ^900.1, Federal Housing Administration, Washington,
D.C. July 191k.
U. "How to Insulate Homes for Electric Heating and Air Conditioning",
National Mineral Wool Insulation Association, New York, N.Y., February,
197^.
5. "Design and Evaluation Criteria for Energy Conservation in New
Buildings", NBSIR lh-h52, U.S. Department of Commerce, National
Bureau of Standards, February, 197^+.
6. Technical Options for Energy Conservation in Buildings", NBS
Technical Note 789, National Bureau of Standards, July, 1973.
7. "Home Heating and Cooling With Electricity, ' Technical Note No. 10,
Small Homes Council, University of Illinois, May, 197^+.
8. "Order Adopting, with Modifications, Examiners Decision Establishing
Insulation Standards for Buildings Heated by Gas", Issued l6 April,
197^, Case 26286, New York State Public Service Commission.
9. J. Moyers, "The Value of Thermal Insulation in Residential Construction",
Report ORNL-NSF-EP-9, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, December 1971.
10. ASHRAE Handbook of Fundamentals , Association of Heating, Refrigerating,
and Air Conditioning Engineers, New York, N.Y., 1972.
11. D. Brotherson, "Insulation for Heating", Technical Note No. 3, Small
Homes Council, University of Illinois, May, 1969-
21
2. Review of Recent Actions in the United States on Utility Rate Structures
Loan Programs to Encourage Installation of Home Insulation, and
Promotional Advertisement.
Public utility commission activities on these topics are
increasing rapidly. It is somewhat difficult to keep up to date.
At least one overall study is in progress, but results are not yet
available [1 ]
2-A. Changes in Utility Rate Structures to Conserve Energy.
Flattening the rate structure is one of several related
tactics, which also include peak load pricing (daily, seasonal) and
marginal cost pricing (instead of average). It is generally held that
these measures would encourage energy conservation, though they might
also be motivated, or justified, on pure economic grounds.
Here we review actions taken by, or under consideration by,
other states.
Wisconsin - The Wisconsin Public Service Commission has flattened
electric rates for the Madison Gas and Electric Company [ 2, 8 August,
197M.
In its decision, the Commission listed these principles, among
others :
a. Long run incremental cost pricing is the proper way to charge
for electricity. Commission held that marginal cost and "long
run incremental cost" were equivalent for this purpose.
b. A major factor in this pricing as peak vs off-peak use. Besides
requiring summer /winter rate differentials, the Commission
recommended that large customers must be subject to day /night
rates "without delay". Although the cost of meters is
apparently a deterrent to implementing for small customers,
the utility must "forthwith undertake, either alone or in
connection with other Wisconsin utilities, experimental work
- in this area".
c. Flat rate design is in general reasonable. The burden of proof is
now placed on the utility to justify a declining rate structure
for any class of service by presenting evidence on the con-
sumption/load factor relationship. The entire argument was
thus based only on economic grounds. The Commission specifically
ordered:
22
1. Residential rates -
a. Winter /summer differential on all energy
consumption exceeding a fixed amount per month.
b. Flat rate. Electricity sold at constant amount
per KWhr s regardless of amount consumed, in
addition to fixed monthly charge.
b. Commercial rates -
1. Winter/summer differential for consumption
over a certain power level.*
2. Some flattening, but not as much as for
residential.
c. Industrial rates -
1. Winter/summer differential based on power level*.
2. Some flattening, but not as much as for residential.
d. Inter class differences - several changes which reduced
differences somewhat:
This decision is publicized as a precedent-setter for energy con-
servation. [ 3] . Two intervenors, notably the Environmental Defense Fund, were
instrumental. The decision was by a 2-to-l vote, and no appeal is expected.
Michigan - The Public Service Commission is fairly adventurous. Currently
their staff has submitted for consideration by the Commission, a residential rate
which is truly inverted [k]. This would be the first such in the nation,
but chances of adoption are slim. They will also consider time-of day metering
for industrial uses.
In two recent previous decisions [5] the Michigan Public
utility Commission indicated strong support for marginal cost pricing,
and stated that "the way in which rate structures are designed must
be changed promotional rate structures are out of date".
The Commission found insignificant variation in load
factor with volume for residential consumers, and therefore promulgated
a flat rate (in addition to single fixed cost. ) Economic factors dominated
but conservation was mentioned, too.
Large customers already have power demand meters. Residential customers
do not.
23
On the other hand, the Utility CoonitisiuE at this time
did not change the commercial and industrial rate structure. It cautioned
that it "must have facts to consider the impact of changes in the econ-
omy of the state". Judged by the recent activity mentioned above, they
have some of the facts now.
New York - The New York Public Service Commission has not made
as sweeping changes as Michigan or Wisconsin, but has made some. It
has approved a summer/winter rate differential for the Long Island
Lighting Company [referred to in 6, p. 68] to be more equitable to
customers without air conditioning. In the same opinion the Commission
recognized "the need to modify the rate structure so as to encourage
conservation".
For residential use, the commission has looked for, but
found n£ connection between increased consumption and load factor. They say
that " rate differentials which benefit large volume users, are,
in general, not justified . In the future it will be incumbent
upon those advocating retention of such rate design features to demon-
strate cost justification".
This is an opinion and order: the order was for the
utility in question, Consolidated Edison, to produce rate structures
consistant with guidelines. According to Joseph Rizzuto, of the Commiss-
ion staff, this represented their strongest statement so far on rate
structure (The Commission has required that one utility experiment with
residential demand meters).
California - Has done no rate setting on this basis, but is moving.
The California Public Utility Commission has recently been ordered by the
legislature to hold hearings and investigations on essentially all of the
issues mentioned with respect to Wisconsin, and report back by 31 August,
1975 iTJ. The order is specific and strong. It is part of a series of
investigations over the past year on general questions of adequacy of
fuel supplies, conservation schemes, etc.
Florida - Within one month of late October, 197*+ [8] , there will
be two general decisions by the Florida Public Service Commission, one
on rate structure and one on promotional advertising. These decisions
will not have an associated rate case, but will be just as binding for
policy in future cases. It is expected that the basic philosophy will
be that of the Wisconsin ruling.
2k
References - Section 2-A.
1. Council of State Governments, Iron Works Pike, Lexington, Kentucky
U0511. Contact is Mike Green. He expressed difficulty in getting
responses from the states.
2. "Application of Madison Gas and Electric Company for Authority to
Increase Its Electric and Gas Rates" Case 2-U-7^23, Public Service
Commission of Wisconsin, 8 August, 197^.
3. "A 'Giant Step' in Power Pricing", Science, 20 September 197^, p. 1031.
h. Thomas Hancock, Chief of Staff, Michigan Public Service Commission,
phone conversation, 28 October, 197^.
5. U-U257, U-U332, Michigan Public Service Commission, Lansing, Michigan.
6. "Opinion and Order Deferring Increased Revenue Requirement and Directing
Changes in Rate Design, Opinion No. 73-31, Case 2630Q, New York
State Public Service Commission, 6 September, 1973.
7. "Investigation on the Commission's own motion into electric utility
rate structures and the changes, if any, that should be made "
Case No. 980U, Public Utilities Commission, Sacramento, California,
10 October, 19lh.
8. James Gentry, Florida Public Service Commission, phone conversation,
28 October, 1968.
25
2-B. Loan Programs for Insulation Installation
The one example is from Michigan. Details are in Reference 1 (the
initial ruling) and in Reference 2 (a follow-up report, issued in mid-
October, 197^). In a few words the Michigan Public Service Commission
has allowed utilities (first, Michigan Consolidated Gas Company, and
now, two others) to include, as legitimate expenses:
1) advertising to promote residential insulation installation
2) financing of loans to accomplish this (for ceiling insulation
only) to the current FHA standard ( 6 inches). The sole
justification is energy conservation. The commission opined
that in view of energy shortages, conservation measures help the
utility serve its customers. The loans are paid by an
additional charge added to the monthly bill, with a maximum
payout time of 36 months. The utility makes no profit on the
loans. To our knowledge, there is no other working program
of this type in the country.
Rather than repeat information in the reports, we stress a
few points by questions.
Ql. Why is the program different from using bank loans?
Al. It's probably more convenient to pay with the gas bill.
No collateral is required. If paid in 90 days, there
is no interest. However, according to Thomas Hancock, Chief
of Staff of the Commission (phone conversation, 15
October 197^ ), most respondents are seeking private
funding.
Q2. How much increase in the monthly bill occurs?
A2. On the order of $10. A 20^ down payment (of order
$30 ) is required.
Q3. How much money is actually saved by the customer?
A3. Significant, but it usually takes between 2 and 5 years
to recover the savings. See Table 2-B-l. The Michigan Public
Service Commission points out that the savings in heating
gas are equivilant to a return interest rate of 17 to kk%
on the original investment for insulation. In other words,
there is a very strong economic incentive.
26
QU. How much energy is saved?
QU. 10 to 17% of the home's heating use [1, p. 7 ]. If carried
over to all homes, this would save in excess of 1% of the
state's energy budget.
Q5. How does the utility assure that fair prices are charged
for insulation and contract work? (graft protection?)
A5. The Commission received and accepted the utility's method of
selecting and monitoring the approved list of contractors.
Q6. How many customers have responded?
A6. As of 31 August, 197^, the 3 utilities estimated that
62 thousand homes have been insulated, but only 297
have been financed through the utilities.
27
MICHIGAN
PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION
INTEROFFICE COMMUNICATION
To: Joel A. Sharkey Date: 9/26/74
From: Jane Ashley
Subject: Home Insulation Savings
At current rates, if a homeowner insulated the home to the six inch
standard, the following would be the results:
Michigan Consolidated Customer
Pre-1940 Home
Average Cost for Do-I t-Yourselfer $ 97.22
Average Yearly Savings 40.08
Average Monthly Savings 3.34
Annual Rate of Return on Investment 41%
Payback Period 2.4 years
Post-1940 Home
Average Cost for Do-It-Yoursel fer $140.00
Average Yearly Savings 24.19
Average Monthly Savings 2.02
Annual Rate of Return 17%
Payback Period 5.8 years
Table 2-B-l, Cost Data For Plome Insulation
Source: Ref. 2
28
References - Section 2-B
1. Michigan Public Service Commission, "In the Matter of the
Application of Michigan Consolidated Gas Company, for
Authorization of a Program for the Conservation of Natural
Gas", Case No. U-UUoU, Lansing, Michigan, 5 October, 1973.
2. J. A. Sharkey, "Home Insulation Promotion and Financing Program",
Report to the Michigan Public Service Commission, undated, received
October, 19lh.
29
2-C. Promotional Advertising by Utilities
Promotional activities of utility companies include not only
advertising but also payments or other considerations. This report
examines only utility commission actions which have restricted advertis-
ing and concentrates on those rulings which were influenced by energy
shortages and which affect energy utilities. Since we are not lawyers
we do not present this as a complete legal anaylsis of all precedents
for such restrictions. Due to the time lag in rulings being published,
any handed down in the last few months may not be included.
There are basically three types of utility advertising. In-
stitutional advertising is intended to improve the public image of the
utility. Promotional advertising serves to gain new customers or to induce
the purchase of more energy. Public service advertising tells customers
about emergency procedures, changes in rates, safety precautions, and
energy conservation measures. Rulings or laws which attempt to restrict
promotional or institutional advertising must be carefully worded or,
as noted below, much "load-building" advertising may be billed as "in-
formational" or "safety".
In the early years of utility regulation promotional advertising
was generally looked upon as a legitimate expense, with some restrictions.
It was not considered reasonable during "conditions calling for emergency
relief" in a 1919 Indiana ruling ('PUR1919A.UU8) , or when it was of
"excessive amount" in a 1921 Oklahoma decision (15 Ann. Rep. Okla. C.C.
15^. ) Various restrictions were placed upon advertising of a political
nature (PUR1922D,l8. ) It was generally held that ratepayers should
foot the bill for the portion of the advertising which was for their
benefit, and that the company's shareholders should pay for advertising
which was of benefit solely to them. Some commissions concluded that all
utility advertising benefitted the rate-payer, and others held that none
of it benefitted him, while others were somewhere in the middle. There
appeared to be no clear rule which would allow one to determine the
legitimacy of a particular advertisement. A 1935 supreme court ruling pro-
vided some closure in this early era of litigation when it was held that
* These refer to Public Utilities Reports, which publishes summaries of
all public utility commission decisions.
30
"reasonable amounts" of promotional advertising were a legitimate expense
for rate setting purposes (6PURNSUU9). The argument in the twenties
and thirties was thus primarily one of equitable division of
cost of the advertisements with energy shortages playing a negligible
role. ("Advertising and promotional practices during shortages of gas
reserves", Public Utilities Fortnightly, Oct. lU, 1971, pp 62-63).
Public utility commissions in many states are once again scrut-
inizing advertising by utilities, after many years of relative inattention.
The reasons given now for restricting such advertising vary; some simply
say it's to help conserve energy by reducing demand, while others continue
to base restrictions on economic considerations, arguing that, for various
reasons, the ratepayer does not derive a benefit from the ads. The latter
reason was the basis for a 1953 Connecticut ruling (2PUR3d379), which
disallowed institutional advertising expenses on the grounds that if anyone
derived an advantage from the ads it would be the shareholders , not the rate-
payers. Other rulings have been products of both the energy crisis and
economic considerations as in a pair of 1971 North Carolina rulings (88
PUR3d230, 88PUE3d283). The reasoning behind many such rulings is that
there is no economic justification for a company to advertise if it can't
even supply the present level of demand. Ecological and plant siting
problems as well as the above argument entered into a 1971 California
ruling (90PUR3dl) which reduced a company's promotional and advertising
allowance. The New York Commission restricted a company's promotional
advertising in 1971 primarily in response to the natural gas shortage
(90PUR3d93). Later that year the same commission allowed advertising
expenses which were of a "service or educational nature" and which did
not tend to aggravate the gas shortage (93PUR3d302) . The Pennsylvania
Commission held hearings regarding the gas shortage and ruled in 1972
that, among other conservation measures, the gas companies must "cease
all advertising and other promotional activities which have the purpose
or effect of increasing the use of gas..." (Case #12U, order of 2/1/72).
Rhode Island noted, in a 1972 ruling which disallowed an electric
company's promotional expenses, that the company would have difficulty
supplying any additional demand (93PUR3dUl7) . The Kansas commission in
1972 disallowed promotional expenses on the grounds that prospective
customers were plentiful and the utility need only connect (95PUR3d2l+7) .
Hawaii in 1973 (96PUR3d80) allowed an electric company to promote in ways
31
designed to improve the "load factor" and therefore allegedly boost effic-
iency. This argument has been put forth elsewhere, as in a dissent to a
1972 Iowa ruling restricting promotion (96PUR3dl) where it was claimed
that the load factor could be improved by "promoting tourism and/or indus-
trial and commercial development". Electric generation is indeed more
efficient when power consumption does not fluctuate, which is one meaning
of a high load factor (the other meaning is a technical one referring to
the inductive component of the load). But there are two ways to eliminate
periodic variations in power consumption: "valley filling" and "peak
shaving." Valley filling is exemplified by adding new demands, such as
electric residential heating and new industries, and boosts efficiency
only by increasing overall energy consumption. Peak shaving achieves
higher efficiency by reducing peak power consumption through such measures
as peak demand charges, and does not increase overall energy consumption
(it may decrease it).
Iowa opened the way for restriction of institutional ads by ruling
that the company must prove how the ratepayer benefitted from each ad.
In the past, customers or consumer groups were required to prove the ads
were not beneficial; the burden of proof was thus shifted (96PUR3dl). The
Iowa commission has in several rulings allowed only that portion of in-
stitutional advertising that could be shown to benefit the public. The
portion was ^0% in one case (99PUR3dU32) . In 1973 the Wisconsin com-
mission disallowed 55% of a company's institutional advertising (99PUP
3dl7^). Commissioner Eich in a concurring opinion said that institutional
ads build the corporate image and benefit the shareholders rather than
the ratepayers.
California in 1972 allowed a gas and electric company sales
promotion expenses which were intended to help conserve energy (97PUP
3d32l). It allowed another company to sponsor "public information"
advertising "designed to promote energy conservation" (l00PUR3d257) ,
after the company had eliminated its openly promotional advertising.
Oklahoma in 1972 established a similar policy of prohibiting
image-building institutional advertising while allowing "consumer and
conservation advertising" without limitation (97PUP3dl). North Carolina
in 1973 allowed a natural gas company "educational and informational
advertising" which "educated the public as to the appropriate use of
natural gas and the conservation of energy" (99PUR3d237) •
32
However, the abiguity of such terms as "consumer", "informational",
or "safety" advertising may allow companies to continue promotion of in-
creased energy consumption. For example, see Fig. 2-C-l, which shows an
advertisement for a "security nite lite".* It could be argued that al-
most any appliance imparts some measure of "safety." For example,
it is probable that electric irons cause fewer burned fingers than
sadirons heated on a stove, or using a trash compactor causes fewer sprain-
ed ankles than stomping garbage into a trash can. The wording of the
California rulings above would appear to restrict this, although channels
would need to be set up for the review of questionable ads.
It should be noted that since Illinois utilities experience peak
demand in the daytime, nite lights do represent a valley-filler. They require
additional energy, but not additional capacity. Most of Illinois
electricity comes from coal or nuclear, which is not as scarce as oil.
New York makes most of its electricity from oil, and hence is currently
energy-limited. The New York Public Service Commission has therefore
banned all promotional advertising. ("Statement of Policy on Advertising
and Promotional Practices by Public Utilities", New York State Public
Service Commission, 21 June, 1972, and phone conversation Les Stuzin,
of the Commission, 28 October, 197^.)
The Rhode Island commission in 1973 (93PUR3dl+17) disallowed
advertising expense that promoted activities which increased demand for
energy o_r which boosted the peak demand. It held that these would only
increase the cost of energy in times of shortage and therefore were not of
benefit to ratepayers.
Utah in 197^ ruled (2PUR Uth, abstracts) that a fuel company
could charge ads to ratepayers only when the ads encourage energy conser-
vation, or instruct consumers in safety matters.
Massachusetts, on the other hand, is one state where rulings as
recently as March, 1973 have left utilities nearly complete freedom to
promote (99PUR3dl+17) . This policy is apparently based upon a binding
Massachusetts Supreme Court ruling on the legitimacy of promotional
advertising which was handed down in 1971, before the energy shortage
reached its present severity.
Other states have asked their utilities to cease promotional
advertising informally, and were thus not included in our survey.
33
The tendency in a growing number of states thus appears to be
either the prohibition of promotional advertising or the elimination
of it as a business expense, often on economic grounds which have their
basis in the energy crisis.
"Image building" institutional advertising is being discouraged
in a number of states, with shareholders having to pay some or all of
the cost of it instead of ratepayers footing the bill alone. The only
utility advertising which has not been restricted to a significant
extent is public service advertising, particularly that which tells
customers how to conserve energy.
f
I
•u
i
fflitiiiB,,- •--'
THE
"3ECTIONAL
*. SECURITY
NITE LITE
Outdoor lighting is recognized
as one of the most effective
safely and security measures for
any business, fqrm or home. As
such, it's a wi{fc«^e of energy.
. The Directional Security Nile
Lite provides powerful oil night
illumination with new flexibility.
Unlike the conventional Nite
Lite, which floodlights o broad
area from o fixed position, the
Directional Security Nite Lite
can be aimed to illuminate o
specific location.
The unit includes o reflector
behind the -bulb to increase the
intensity of illumination.
Operates
automatically.
Tunis on it dusk and oft
il dawn.
Available In
Iwa siies:
400 watt and 1.000 watt
mercury vapor lloodlights
fixed monthly
rcntol fee
covers installation on
Illinois Power poles,
maintenance and all
ttecliicily the lifht uses.
Fig.2-C-1.
Recent pro-
motional
advertisement
from Illinois
Power Company.
Contained in
residential
bill, October,
197U.
BJi-ay.ii'jugq
S££E'.
Efficiency
All-night outdoor lighting
discouiages thieves, prcwlers
and vandals.
*5*» ^
Sjtong illumination directed
where you want it can prevent
serious accidents that occur
in darkness.
Jobs after daik are done .
efficiently and quickly with the
illumination provided by a
Directional Security Nite Lite.
For ''ofa-ils
*on Directional
Security
i\Jiv«? Life,
de»ach or.d
rraii this
coupon in the
envelope with
your payment.
Ko o';!;na,ion.
^r
y^
TO: ILLINOIS POWER COMPANY
I'm intereitad in lh« new Directional Security
Nite lite for my □ business □ farm Q horn*
My name
Firm najne
Address
City
Phont)
35
3. Conservation Potential of Solar Heating and Cooling of Buildings,
Including V/ater Heating.
On a clear day about 1000 watts per square meter of solar power
falls on the earth. U.S. total energy use averages out to 10 thousand
watts per person. Even if we allow a factor of 3 for day/night effects
and another factor of 3 for bad weather and inefficiency of collection,
we still find that 90 square meters (a plot 30 feet on a side) should pro-
vide a person's energy needs. Similarly, 0.2$ of America's area should
provide all of our energy needs today.
This discussion is incomplete because it has not taken account of
another factor - temperature. Smelting iron requires high temperatures,
while heating residential water requires low temperatures. In principle,
by use of focusing devices, solar power could achieve a temperature approach-
ing that of the sun's surface (about 10 thousand degrees F.), enough to
satisfy almost any requirement. In practice, building such a device would be
extremely expensive.
In this section we will discuss the use of flat plate, non-focusing
non-tracking collectors, which achieve a peak temperature of 200 F.* This
limits the applications to space heating (including grain drying) and cool-
ing and air conditioning. From Table 3-1, we see that these uses today
account for about 25$ of America's energy.
The potential energy savings from Solar Heating and Cooling (SHAC)
is on the order of 25$ of today's use, but practically (economically) speak-
ing, much less. We have reviewed several studies, some of which attempted
to predict the acceptance of SHAC, and we will present a summary of the find-
ings. Our basic opinion is this: that for many applications, particularly
residential, solar power is close enough to economic competitiveness that
some action encouraging it is justified (on the justifiable basis that com-
peting fuel will continue to rise in price). As mentioned below, Florida
has already enacted legislation; Indiana has passed a law allowing tax-
breaks for SHAC systems.
*Higher temperatures can be obtained through conversion, such as to electri-
city in a solar power station and subsequent use in an electric furnace. This
sacrifices efficiency and requires much more collector area. We will not worry
about power plants here.
36
First , a few general comments ;
1. Of the applications listed above, water heating is the most
likely to be economically justifiable, because of the
relatively constant load through the year.
2. Air conditioning is also a likely candidate since the need
occurs when the sun is highest, but absorption air condition-
ing is not yet as reliable as conventional (compressor type)
(Cooling by running a solar collector in reverse at night
works best in dry climates with cool nights. It is of doubtful
use in humid Illinois). Also, this requires temperatures at
the high end of the possible range, approaching 200°F. This
requires more expensive collectors than water heating, for
which 1^0° F suffices.
3. Commercial buildings are not as likely candidates as resi-
dential. First, their air conditioning load exceeds their
heating load; the opposite is true for residences. Second,
commercial customers currently pay less for conventional fuels.
(Peak load pricing could change this significantly.)
h. Use for grain drying is difficult to assess due to first,
possible availability of other tactics (use of chemical
preservatives, etc.) and second, the sensitivity to the "one
bad year". With respect to the second point, currently there
are three test solar units in Illinois. They provide low-
temperature drying, which takes from 30 to 60 days. Last
year (1973) this type of drying would have been perfectly
suitable for the crop, which was already fairly dry. This
year (197*0, thanks to the early severe frosts, it would have
been unsuitable; the grain was wet and needed drying within
2h hours. It is estimated that about one-third of Illinois
grain would have been lost this year with low- temperature solar
drying. It seems that a 100^ standard backup system would
have to be maintained, even with a solar system. [2]
37
For the uses mentioned there is plenty of solar energy. The techn-
ology has been demonstrated. The limiting factor in acceptance is dollar cost,
and projections of the actual impact of solar heating and cooling (SHAC) must
depend on projections of relative costs of competing sources.
For example, a critical factor is how much retrofitting will occur.
At present, retrofitting a house for SHAC costs about twice as much as
installation at time of construction. [3,p.3-13] (Recognizing this, Florida
has passed a law requiring that all new one-family dwellings must be equipped
with plumbing for solar water heating hook-up. )
Another question about cost is that of the economies of scale in solar
collector technology. Usually the projections we have seen assume a future
decrease in cost (per square foot) of solar collectors (an exception is Ref.U).
This is critical since most of the cost of the SHAC system is for capital
equipment. Sizes of storage facilities and collectors are independent, and
both quite expensive. (it has been pointed out that if you over estimate,
by a factor two, the size of gas furnace you need, it costs $175. more. A
similar mistake with a rooftop collector will cost $1000-$2000 more.) Actually,
it is rarely economical to go to a 100% solar basis, and even a solar system
will usually incorporate a conventional backup (oil, gas, electric heat pump,
etc. )
Comprehensive estimates of the cost of SHAC come from only 2 sources.
L8f and Tybout have done very detailed work on residential use. [5] Unfortun-
atly their results are based on 1970 prices and have not been consistently
updated. Recently, three companies (TRW, Westinghouse, and General Electric)
have completed short studies for the National Science Foundation on the "market
capture" potential of SHAC [3,^,6]. Their results are not as painstaking,
but are more current. Examples are given in Tables 3-2 and 3-3 for residential
use.
The consensus of these is that SHAC is not economically competitive
with gas or oil now for a climate like Illinois'. However, we see that with a
reasonable increase in price of fuel (say T% per year, a doubling every ten
years, which seems conservative) it is competitive.
As for the actual "market capture potential", the predictions made
by the NSF contract ees and by a joint NSF/NASA panel in 1972 [7], are not
38
too optimistic. The estimates for the energy saved by SHAC ranges between
100 and 175 x 1012 Btu in 1985 , about 0.09 to 0.15$ of the nation's projected
energy use. As shown in Table 3-*+ the various projections do not differ
from each other by all that much in spite of presumably independent assumptions
about new building construction , economic factors, etc.
All of these projections, which include some estimate of consumer
acceptability, are much less than the potential of SHAC. For comparison,
we have estimated a maximum energy savings. We assumed that 2/3 of all new
residential and commercial construction starts will use SHAC to 50$ solar
dependency, and that no retrofits occur. (These are in accord with an estimate
made in Ref. 6). By 1985 we obtain a savings of 2 x 10 ' Btu/yr. This is
more than 10 times the projections in Table 3-^, and equals 1.7$ of the 1985
U.S. energy use. This is indeed a large and signifcant savings.*
We have found no projections of housing in Illinois that go beyond
a few years; for the longer period we therefore must extrapolate national
results to Illinois. To recapitulate, we have three estimates of the energy
savings by use of SHAC in heating, air conditioning, and water heating:
1. Replacement of all current uses : - ?5$ of energy use.
2. Maximum application in new buildings, no retrofits, by 1985:
1.7$ of projected use.
3. Industry estimates of acceptance, by 1985: 0.09 - 0.15$
of projected use.
* The energy needed to build SHAC is paid back in from one to two
years of operation.
39
Table 3-1. Energy Uses Suitable for Solar Units
(%
of
Illinois Energy Budget)
Residential Commercial
Industrial
Space heating
10.9 7.0 I
i Direct heat "J A
Water heating
2.9 0.6
\
Air conditioning
0.3 1.8
0.3C)
Grain drying
t>)
a) All figures except grain drying are from Ref. 1, Table 3, and
apply to national average data for the year 1968.
b) Only a part of this is low-temperature use suitable for solar supply,
c) Data specific for Illinois, from David Lohr, Illinois Office of the
Energy Coordinator, phone conversation, 8 November, 197^.
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1+1
T*able 3-3. Single Family Residence, Investment and Life-cycle Cost ($)
50% Solar Dependency
a)
Heating/Cooling
Region and System
1975
1985
b)
Investment
15-Year
Life-Cycle
Investment
15-Year
Life-Cycle
West Coast
Santa Maria, Calif.
3650
5820
2840
6640
Solar Heating and
Cooling
Solar Heat Pump
-
-
-
-
Solar Heating Only
2540
3500
1970
3730
Conventional Heating
and Cooling
2220
5020
2850
8100
Conventional Heating
Only
1110
2530
1420
4110
Northeast
Wilmington, Del.
Solar Heating and
Cooling
8810
12700
6850
13800
Solar Heat Pump
4800
9930
3740
13400
Solar Heating Only
4220
5860
3290
6300
Conventional Heating
and Cooling
2220
7600
2850
13200
Conventional Heating
Only
1140
3420
1460
5870
a) Source: Ref. k.
b) Between 1975 and 1985 the energy price is assumed to increase at 1%
per year; the equipment price, 5%.
U2
Table 3-h. Estimates of Energy Savings by SHAC
in Residential and Commercial Buildings (total U.S. )
Source
12
Energy saved (10 Btu/yr)
1980
1985
1990
Reference
.)
NSF/NASA, 1972
Westinghouse, 197^
a)
a)
6
TRW, 197^ 10
a)
General Electric, 197^ 10
170
-
110
300
100
200
100
200
Maximum obtainable
b)
2000
Projected total U.S. 100 x 10
Energy (Btu/yr)
15
113 x 10
15
127 x 10
15
a) Estimates include predictions of economic acceptability.
b) Estimated by us assuming 2/3 of new consumption has 50% solar dependence,
U3
References - Section 3.
1. "Patterns of Energy Consumption in the United States", Office of Science
and Technology, Washington, D.C., January 1972, U.S. Government Publication
hl06 - 003^.
2. Harvey Hirning, Department of Agricultural Engineering, University of Illinois,
phone conversation, 15 November, 191 h .
3. "Solar Heating and Cooling of Buildings", NSF-RA-N-7l*-022A, Executive
Secretary, Final report to the National Science Foundation, TRW Systems Group,
Redondo Beach, California , May, 197^.
k. Same as Ref. 3, except NSF-RA-N-7i+-023A, Westinghouse Electric Corporation,
Baltimore, Maryland, May 191 h.
5. G. L8f, testimony in hearings before the Subcommittee on Energy of the
Committee on Science and Astronautics, U.S. House of Representatives,
June 7, 1973. Contained in committee print on Solar Energy for Heating and
Cooling, U.S. Government Printing Office, Document 23-1^90. Lfif is a
prime source; most economic work is done in collaboration with R. Tybout.
d. Same as Ref. 3, except NSF-RA-N-71+-021A, Document No. 7^5Dli219, General
Electric Company, Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, May, 19lk.
7. Quoted in Table 8-2 in TERRASTAR (Technical Application of Solar Technology and
Research), Final Report CR-129012, National Aeronautics and Space Administration,
September, 1973. The original document is P. Donovan and W. Woodward, "An
Assessment of Solar Energy as a National Energy Resource", NSF/NASA Solar Energy
Panel, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Maryland, December,
1972.
kk
l+ • Comparison of Energy Efficiency of Home Heating Sources.
To employ a horrible cliche, there has been more heat than
light produced by the proponents of the several modes of home
heating. Recently the two most vociferous antagonists have been
the gas industry and the electric industry, each with studies
which purport to show that their method of heating is vastly
superior to any other in terms of efficiency and/or cost. There
are methodological problems in the evidence presented by both
sides, but after a careful review of the evidence we find that
fossil fuel home heating plants are superior in overall efficiency
to electric heat pump installations, with electric resistance
heat running a poor third.
The points in dispute include the following:
1) In what units shall energy requirements be expressed?
2) What sort of "efficiency" rating is relevant to a com-
parison of overall energy requirements?
3) What confounding factors need to be experimentally con-
trolled when different homes equipped with different heating
systems are compared?
h) How well are home heating plants maintained, and to what
extent does a lack of maintenance lower efficiency?
In regard to l) above, as in the rest of this report the
energy requirements of different systems are compared not in
terms of energy consumed by the device in the home, but in terms
of primary energy requirements , through suitable conversion
factors which take into account the energy lost in extracting
the fuel from the ground, converting it to a usable form, and
delivering it to final demand. These losses differ with differ-
ent fuels and forms of energy. For example, to deliver one Btu to
the home in the form of electricity instead of gas requires about
3.3 times as much primary energy to start with (see Table U-l). Because of
this gross disparity in efficiency of delivery between the different forms
of energy, a gas or oil home heating plant in effect has a head
start over an electric system. Of course, these energy efficiency
h5
coefficients for the various forms of energy provide no informa-
tion about their availabilities . A homeowner's choice of fuel
is largely governed by what he can get: currently in many regions
of Illinois the utility companies have long waiting lists for
residential gas heating connections, and heating oil is subject
to scarcity as during the Arab oil boycott. But no source is
immune to the energy shortage, since oil and gas for electric
generation are likewise subject to shortages and even coal could
come into short supply if an extended miner's strike occurred.
The second area of confusion involves the meaning of "effi-
ciency." A shortsighted approach merely considers the heat
delivered through the output orifice of a device relative to the
energy input to the device under laboratory conditions. For
electric resistance heating this efficiency is ucually taken as
100$. The corresponding "bonnet efficiency" of a gas furnace
must be not less than nor much more than 75$ for it to receive
the American Gas Associations 's approval. But this figure is
quite meaningless for the purposes of this study, for two rea-
sons. First, in an actual home installation bonnet efficiency
may be lower due to lack of cleaning and adjustment and to the
intermittent nature of operation. On the other hand, the heat
supplied to the heating ducts is not all the heat input the
system gives to the house. Studies over a period of several
decades at the University of Illinois and elsewhere by such
men as Seichi Konzo , W.S. Harris, and others have found [1,2]
that the radiation from the chimney and from the furnace itself
comprises a significant portion of the total heat input to the
house. Thus "seasonal utilization efficiency," which is equal
to the total heat input to the house from the heating system
divided by the heat content of the fuel used, averaged over
the entire heating season, is the most relevant statistic in this
inquiry.
k6
The "utilization efficiency" for a heating system times the
"delivery efficiency" equals the "overall efficiency." Table U-l
gives these figures for the different means of heating, and is
therefore the "results".
This brings us to the third area of controversy: what vari-
ables must be controlled for a comparison of utilization efficiencies
heating systems to be meaningful? The need for such experimental
control becomes evident when one compares studies done by the
electric industry which find the utilization efficiency of gas
furnaces to average 39% [h 1 with tables from the gas industry
which list a "typical utilization efficiency" of 75% [5]. Table
U-2 lists the utilization efficiencies given by different sources.
The low figures for fossil fuel efficiency (for example, as given by
Dunning), which ma^e electric heat look relatively less wasteful, are
much too low because of a failure to recognize that less than the nor-
mal amount of heating gas would be burned in the hypothetical home's
furnace during the winter if the high amount of appliance electricity
assumed were actually used by the occupants! We have reviewed other
organizations' results which also indicate low seasonal efficiencies.
We find that these always result from failure to control for one or
more of the following variables: the lifestyles of the inhabitants,
the amount of insulation, the amount of fresh air introduced into the
house, the thermostat settings, the size, construction, and orientation
of the living unit, etc. Merely comparing gas consumption in
gas heated dwellings to electrical consumption in electrically
heated dwellings provides no basis for comparing the relative
efficiencies of the heating plants.
The figure used for comparisons in this report is 70%
seasonal efficiency for both gas and oil furnaces, properly
installed and receiving the normal degree of maintenance. This
figure is said to be a reasonable and conservative one by the
experts consulted (Konzo and Harris). It is based upon years of
hi
careful experimentation at the research residences of the
University of Illinois.
Now we turn to the question of maintenance and its effect
on efficiency. Certainly a furnace can get dirty or out of ad-
justment to the point that its heat output is nil. Some pro-
ponents of electric heat point out that furnaces require (and
don't get) maintenance, but they neglect the fact that heat
pumps also require periodic maintenance to remain functional.
The Tennessee Valley Authority, though a strong proponent of
electric heat pumps, makes the following recommendation: "We
recommend that a good serviceman make a preventive maintenance
inspection and service your unit once, or preferably twice each
year. By doing this he can make all the necessary routine ad-
justments and servicing of the entire system and can often spot
minor troubles which, if left uncorrected, may lead to major
repair bills" [6 ]. (Emphasis added) They admit that "some heat pumps
have had a poor performance record in the past," but state that "there
are good heat pumps being manufactured today which will give many
years of reliable, economic service, if they are properly in-
stalled and maintained. " (Emphasis added) A TVA official is quoted
[6 ] as stating that even a well made heat pump may not function
efficiently unless it is installed and serviced by dealers having
special advanced training.
Heat pump.? function best in mild climates. They are usually
backed up by ordinary electric resistance heating coils when the
outside temperature is particularly low. Thus, a heat pump is
a more attractive method for someone in Cairo, Illinois with
382 0 heating degree days than for someone in Rockford with 6830 degree
days. In colder areas the advantage of a heat pump over simple electric
resistance heating diminishes but the heat pump is always more
efficient than resistance heating if working properly.
All heating plants need periodic maintenance to work
efficiently. All are not equally sensitive to a lack of main-
tenance, however, as oil furnaces and heat pumps suffer more
from neglect than do gas furnaces and electric resistance
heaters .
U8
Conclusion
The merits of the various systems for heating Illinois homes
stack up as follows. Gas central heating is the method of choice
from an energy standpoint, but it is not available to new customers in
many parts of the state at this time.
Other fossil fuel furnaces follow in overall efficiency.
Stoker fired bituminous coal furnaces are relatively efficient, but
tend to pollute and may not be acceptable to a large portion of the
population. Oil furnaces are also efficient, but require more maintenance
then do gas units, and tend to pollute more when they are first starting
up. (Actually, within our limits of accuracy, gas, coal, and oil furnaces
are really equivalent in efficiency.)
Heat pumps are next on the list. The efficiency of these units
varies with the climate as noted above. In the distant or not so
distant future, when the scarcity of all fossil fuels prevents their
being burned, heat pumps will undoubtedly be the heating method
of choice. A state operated certification program for heat pump
installers and servicemen, like that of TVA, would increase
consumer acceptance.
Electric resistance baseboard heating is at the bottom of
the list in terms of overall efficiency. Its advantages include
low first cost, quiet, clean operation, and low maintenance, along
with sensitivity to local temperature changes and more adjustibility
due to the multiplicity of thermostats.
The efficiencies of the fossil fuel heating plants could
be increased somewhat in several ways. One is by eliminating
pilot lights in favor of electric igniters, as noted in another
section. Another is by adding heat-recovery units to the
flue, to recover the heat going up the chimney. The problem here
is that recovering too much heat will lower the smoke temperature
so much that there will be an inadequate draft. ■ The same effect
• could be achieved by increasing the heat exchange surface in the
furnace itself, boosting the bonnet efficiency considerably.
Again, this is not done because the draft would be decreased.
Actually, a chimney such as an interior chimney in a two story
house, already acts as a "heat recovery" device, radiating much
1*9
heat to the house. Flue dampers have also been suggested to
decrease heat loss through the stack, but extraordinarily re-
liable units would have to be developed before they could be
employed without running the risk of asphyxiation. One desir-
able change is the elimination of the practice now employed in some
installations, of getting combustion air from the heated living area.
This practice may save expensive ductwork when the furnace is
installed, but it may lead to an unnecessarily high rate of vent-
ilation, when cooking odors or tobacco smoke are not a problem.
It should be noted in closing that total energy systems or
integrated utility systems may be the best system for the future,
with the heat usually wasted in electric generation put to work
heating or cooling homes built around the power plant, but these
systems were not to be reviewed in this report. At present, they
are impractical for single family residential application.
50
Source
Table k-1. Efficiency {%) of Residential Heat Sources
Delivery a.]
Efficiency
Utilization
Overall
Efficiency
Notes
Coal
(Bituminous
Stoker Fired)
Oil
Gas
Electric
(Resistance)
Electric
(Heat pump)
b)
98.6
83.9
86.2
25.8
25.8
60
TO
59
58
c)
TO
60
100
26
138
36
to 203
to
52
c)
Coal pollutes.
Requires mainten-
ance. Soot reduces
efficiency greatly.
May be scarce.
Possible advantage
in individual room
thermostats .
Efficiency is lowest
in coldest climates.
a) Ref. 3
b) Heat pumps do have efficiencies greater than 100$, and this is not
a violation of the First Law of Thermodynamics!
c) Practically speaking, these are equal.
51
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52
References to Table k-2
SHC:
Hittman:
ORNL :
Gas Eng. H'bk:
Dunning:
NCTI:
Kennedy:
"Fuels and Burners," Small Homes Council - Building Research
Council, Circular Series, G3.5 University of Illinois
Bulletin Vol. 68, Number 133, July 2, 1971, revised by
W.S. Harris and S. Konzo.
"Residential Energy Consumption, Single Family Housing
Final Report, "Hittman Associates, Inc., for department of
HUD, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Policy Development
and Research, March, 1973.
Eric Hirst, ORNL-NSF-EP-18 Preliminary Report, Oak Ridge Nation-
al Laboratory, 1972.
Ref. 5
R.L. Dunning, et al., "Analysis of Relative Efficiencies of
Various Types of Heating Systems," Report PSP 10-30-73
(Revised 1/21/7^), The Energy Utilization Project, Westing-
house Electric Corporation, East Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
"A report on the living difference project, two identical
homes using different energy sources for the four major
tasks," conducted by Nationwide Consumer Testing Institute
for the East Ohio Gas Company, draft version.
Don Kennedy, "Energy Conservation ... Some Wheat, Some
Chaff", A.G.A. Monthly, February, 1973, pp. h-7 .
EEA
Ref k.
53
References - Section k
1. W. Harris and S. Konzo, "Fuels and Burners", Circular Series
G 3.5, Small Homes Council - Building Research Committee,
University of Illinois, 1971.
2. D. Brotherson, "Heating the Home", Circular Series G 3.1, Small
Homes Council - Building Research Committee, University of Illinois,
1971.
3. R. Herendeen and C. Bullard, "Energy Cost of Consumer Goods",
Manuscript, July, 197^. This is a slight modification of R. Herendeen,
"An Energy Input-Output Matrix for the United States, 1963: User's
Guide", Document No. 69, Center for Advanced Computation, University
of Illinois, Urbana, II. 6l801, March, 1973.
k. "Studies Support Electric Efficiency Claim", Electrical World, 15
September, 1973.
5. "Fuel Comparisons", Gas Engineers Handbook, New York, The Industrial
Press, 1965. See also the references in Table h-2.
6. "Heat Pumps, The Energy Miser", TVA Perspective, 197^, pp. 25-27.
5*
5. Energy Savings from Recycling.
5 - A. Recycling paper.
First of all, paper can "be burned productively. This is not
recycling, but represents an improvement over land-filling. According
to Ref. 1, about U8 million tons of paper currently enters the U.S.
waste stream annually. If this were burned it would supply 7 x 10
Btu, or about 1% of the nation's energy budget.* This would provide
k% of the nation's electricity, if burned in power plants (as is done
in Europe and several locations in the U.S., including a plant owned by
Union Electric Company in St. Louis. )
The percentages above would apply roughly to Illinois. Currently
burning garbage is economical only in dense populations (the state of
Montana produces less solid waste than the city of St. Louis).
True recycling cannot be attained for all paper because of a
decline in fiber quality through the whole recycling process. Thus some
kinds of paper do not undergo a cycle, but rather a discending spiral,
as they are "recycled".
Any result we obtain for "energy saved" will also be subject to
uncertainties of l) energy of collection 2) energies of separation of
paper from other solid waste; hence energy saved, as given here, will be
an upper limit. We will use national average data and assume Illinois
energy scales with population.
In Table 5-A-l we list current (1970) national paper production
(about 500 lbs. per person per year, of which about three-fifths goes into
packaging [l, Table 35].) Already, about 23% of this is recycled
(including in-house recycling by industry). The questions are: how much more can
be recycled, and at what energy cost?
* We estimate, using techniques in Ref. 2, that it takes about 0.1% of the
U.S. fossil fuel and hydro energy budget to produce this paper. At this
point it takes less to make than can be recovered by combustion. However,
the' additional energy of converting some of these materials to packaging and
publications, raises the energy input. For most paper used in the home
(packaging, paper towels, etc), we have found that it does take more
to make the product than can be recovered. [3] If we must have packaging,
then it makes sense to burn it productively instead of discarding it.
But a strategy of reducing the amount of packaging probably would save
more energy per unit of service delivered to the consumer.
55
The answer to the first question is to he found in Column 3 of
Tahle 5-A-l. These are estimates "by Midwest Research Institute for the
American Paper Institute, and are somewhat dependent on the assumed
economic future. The net effect is an increase to a 1+9% recycle rate;
this is a limit placed "by paper technology, not by recoverability. Even
within this maximum, roughly half of paper production could not be
recycled. As Midwest points out, it is unlikely that recycling will
ever get near to this figure with present economics. For the second
question, we use an estimate by Berry and Makino [k]. Their estimate is
for a single process (production of paperboard), and they do include
energy of transporting the recyclable materials. We are applying their
number to a "general" paper recycling process, and hence some uncertainty
is introduced (Wp note that we agree with them, to 30% accuracy, in our
calculation of the total energy to make all paper). They estimate that
paper and paperboard require about 3300 Btu/lb. to manufacture, and that
50% of this energy can be saved through recycling. Combining this with
the "ultimate" increase in recyclability (H9% minus the present 23%),
we obtain a savings of 15% of the energy to make paper, or about 0.09%
of the nations' energy budget.* We assume that a similar figure applies
to Illinois.
* This seems to say that more energy can be saved by burning paper pro-
ductively than by recycling. This is a result of a convention: the
nations' energy budget is usually defined as consisting of only fossil
fuels, plus hydro power, yet when we burn paper we are burning wood.
This is a contradiction; since if wood were not made into paper it could
be used as a fuel itself. We offer no solution to this; just read carefully!
56
Table 5-A-l. Paper recycling
Grade
Production, 1970
(10 tons)
% reeycle, 1970
% recycle
potential
Linerboard
11.2
Corrugating
k.3
Medium
Folding Boxboard
k.l
Printing - writing
11.0
Tissue
2.6
Newsprint
3.3
37-5
Other
15.8
5
33
80
6
28
12
20 avge,
29
25
aoo
=100
50
low
-ioo#
No change
Total
53.3
23 avge
h9%
.) Source: Ref. 5
57
References - Section 5-A.
1. W. Franklin and A. Darnay, "The Role of Nonpackaging Paper in Solid
Waste Management, 1966 to 1976, "Publication S¥-26c , U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, 1971.
2. R. Herendeen, "An Input - Output Energy Matrix for the U.S. , 1963:
Users Guide, "Document No. 69, Center for Advanced Computation,
University of Illinois, March, 1973.
3. R. Herendeen and A. Sebald, "The Dollar, Energy, and Employment
Impacts of Certain Consumer Options, Vol.1", Document No. 97, Center
for Advanced Computation ., University of Illinois, April, 197*+.
k. R. Berry and H. Makino, "Energy Thrift in Packaging and Marketing",
Technology Review, 76, No. k, February, 197U.
5. W. Franklin, "Paper Recycling, The Art of the Possible 1970-1985",
American Paper Institute, March, 1973.
58
5-B. Recycling Aluminum
3.6% of America's 1973 aluminum production was from recycled
"old scrap". This contrasts with 17% recycling for total scrap [l]; the
difference is "new scrap"; cuttings, trimmings, etc, which are recycled ,
within the industry itself. The new scrap recycle rate is thus some measure
of the efficiency of the aluminum industry, while the old scrap recycle
rate is a measure of the ability of the society to recycle after consumption.
Remelting of aluminum requires much less energy then making it
from scratch - about 96% less [2] . This incentive to recycle must be weighed
against the reality that much aluminum goes into long-lasting equipment and
goods and therefore may not be available because it is still being used.
We can contrast aluminum with paper. Some paper is consumed (toilet tissue!),
and some sequestered (books), but most is used for a few months and then
returned to the waste stream. On the other hand, about three-fourths of
U.S. aluminum production is used for buildings, machinery, transportation
equipment, electrical equipment, and consumer durables (Table 5-B-l). If
we had a steady-state economy this fact would be irrelevant, since in that
case we would be producing as much of these products as were wearing out.
But in a growth situation, relatively little will return to the waste
stream until 10 to ho years later. This argument does not apply to con-
tainers and packaging, which last only a few months.
We see from Table 5-B-l that the doubling times for all users
but imports, over the last decade, were less than 10 years. On this basis
we estimate that no more than i+5-55% of todays aluminum production could
be made from recycled old scrap. (This assumes 100% recycle of containers
and packaging )
1973' s U.S. production of primary aluminum required about l.U
x 10 Btu, or 1.8% of the nation's energy budget (This does not include
additional energy to fabricate it into products, transport it to market,
etc.; factors that we have accounted for in discussing beverage containers
in Section 5-C). If we were to shift from today's 3.6% old scrap recycle
rate .to the 50% limit mentioned above, we would save a maximum of 0.8U%
of the nation's energy.
However, this figure doesn't yet account for the energy of collect-
ion, separation, transportation, cleaning, and for recycling difficulties
caused by impurities. Our feeling is that these questions can only be
answered by a very detailed and specific study. What is a rough estimate?
59
We find in Section 5-C that for the all-aluminum can the energy-
cost of these operations is about 50% of the energy saved by one recycling
operation. Applying this factor with trepidation, we find that a savings of
0.5 x O.Qhfo, or 0.1*2% of the nation's energy budget, could be achieved by
recycling all available old scrap aluminum today. We assume similar results
for Illinois. However, much aluminum is manufactured in regions of cheap
electricity, such as the Pacific Northwest, so the savings would be felt
disproportionately outside of Illinois.
6o
Table 5-B-l. Aluminum production by market, 1973
a)
End use Market share Doubling time
1963-T3b)
(years)
Building and construction
2U.T
Transportation
19.3
Consumer durables
9.2
Electrical
12.7
Machinery and equipment
6.5
Containers and packaging
lU.l
Exports
6.5
Other
7.0
8.2
9.9
9.5
6.9
9.3
k.3
9.6
lU. 6
100.0 8.1
a) Source: Ref.l, p.l6.
b) Doubling time is the number of years required for use to double if it con-
tinued to grow exponentially at the 1963-73 rate. Data from Ref.l, p. 17.
6l
References - Section 5-B
1. Aluminum Statistical Review, 1973, The Aluminum Association, New York,
N.Y. 10017.
2. R. Berry and H. Makino, "Energy Thrift in Packaging and Marketing",
Technology Review ,76, No. ht February, 197*+.
62
5-C Recycling of Soft Drink and Beer Bottles and Cans.
Up through 1973, returnable glass bottles were continuing to
decrease their share of the beverage market. Table 5-C-l shows the trend
over the last few years for the U.S. In 1973, there were 58.9 billion non-
return bottles and cans produced, compared with 1.75 billion returnable bottles
(These were returned about 19 times.)
When we speak of recycling, we will actually refer to returning
glass bottles. We will not consider two other type of "recycling":
a. Smash - remelt of glass bottles. It takes about as much
energy to remelt broken glass as to make glass from raw
materials; this recycle does not save energy. [1]
b. Recycle of aluminum cans. At present 16% of all-aluminum cans
are recycled. This is equivalent to a trippage of 1.19. The
aluminum industry talks about 60-10% recycle (2.5 - 3.3 "trips"),
but as shown in Table 5-C-2, the aluminum can requires
a recycle rate of over 90% (10 "trips") to become energetically
competitive with the 15-trip glass returnable bottle. In
addition, aluminum can recycling is not as active in Illinois
as elsewhere, for undetermined economic reasons. Champaign-
Urbana has no such recycling on a continuing basis.
Hannon has done a detailed energy study of the energy cost of
various types of beverage packaging [1]. He includes the energy to transport,
separate (from municipal waste), and remake the container if necessary.
We have also compared similar work from two other sources [2,3]. There
is much controversy here so we sought to use all the sources to come up
with an estimate of uncertainity in the final figures in Table 5-C-2.
To calculate potential energy savings, we first estimate the
fraction of the national beverage container market consumed in Illinois
as 5.5%, based on Ref.U. We list results for N (the number of returns
per bottle) = 15 in Table 5-C-3 (15 is less than the current national average
of 19; we use a more conservative value).
We see that a complete shift to returnable glass bottles by the
12
soft drink and beer drinkers in Illinois would save (1973) 13.1 x 10 Btu/yr,
or about 0.32% of Illinois' energy budget. Since Illinois is a large bottle
producer, much of that energy would be saved within the state.
63
The yearly number of beverage containers to be manufactured would
decline from approximately 3.^ billion to 350 million, a drop of
for N = 15.
6k
Table 5-C-l. National Beverage Bottle and Can Sales (billion / year)
Non-return bottle Returnable bottle Cans
1973 11. h 1.75 U1.5 (10.6)
1972 l6.k 1.86 31. h (8.U)
1971 15.7 1.8l
1970 15.6 2.10 31.9
1967 9.k 2.5^ 21.0
a) Sources: Bottles; Current Industrial Reports, "Glass Containers,
Summary for 1973, M32G(73) - 13, U.S. Bureau of
the Census; Cans 1972-73; Current Industrial Reports,
"Metal Cans, Summary for 1973", M3^D (73) - 13,
U.S. Bureau of the Census; Cans 1967, 1970; Ref.3 ,
Table 1.
b) Sales of bottles by bottle maker. For the number of fills, one
must multiply this column by the number of returns per bottle,
which is about 19.
c) Figure in parenthesis is for all-aluminum cans.
Table 5-C-2. Energy Requirements of Several
p )
Types of Beverage Containers Per Filling
Container type (12 oz. )
Energy per filling (Btu) **c'
Bimetallic can
Aluminum can
Throvavay glass "bottle
Returnable glass bottle
f
\.
no return
5500 + 200
no return
7800 + 1+00
l6% recycle (nat. average)
6800 + 300
30% recycle
1*900 + 300
87.5$ recycle
3000 + 500
no return
5800 + 300
5 trips
2600 + 300
10 trips
1900 + 300
15 trips
1600 + 200
19 trips
1500 + 200
a) Source: Ref. 1, Tables 3 and 5; Ref. 2 and 3, and authors
calculations
b) Error limit estimated by comparison of References 1,3, and 5.
c) Energy used to transport container to local store or recycling
center is neglected, and could be significant.
66
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67
References - Section 5-C
1. B. Hannon, "System Energy and Recycling; A study of the
Beverage Industry", Document No. 23, Center for Advanced
Computation, University of Illinois, March 1973.
2. P. Atkins, "Energy Requirements to Produce the All-Aluminum Beverage
Can", No. 73-53, for presentation at the 65th Annual meeting of the
Air Pollution Control Association., Miami Beach, Florida, June, 1972.
3. R. Hunt and W.Franklin, "Resource and Environmental Profile Analysis
of Nine Beverage Container Alternatives", Draft Final Report, MRI
Project 379^-D (2 volumes), Midwest Research Institute, Kansas City,
Missouri, 6 February, 197^+.
h. H. Folk, "Two Papers on the Effects of Mandatory Deposits on
Beverage Containers", Document No. 73, Center for Advanced Computation,
University of Illinois, January 1973.
68
5-D. Recycling of Auto Hulks
We draw here on the results of Berry and Fels, [l] who have sub-
jected the manufacture of the cars to a detailed process analysis (inci-
dentally, we have analyzed the car by a completely different method and
agree with Berry and Fels to about 20%).
Recycling of the metal in the car is subject to a typical
problem in that 100% recycling of all steel is not possible for one
technology: the blast furnace can accept no more than about 15% scrap
to iron ore ratio. However, the electric furnace can accept up to 100%
scrap, but currently electric furnaces are not the major steel producers.
An auto requires about 126 million Btu to manufacture (1967).
Including the energy of some modest transportation of the scrap, between
3^ and UU million Btu per car could be saved by 100% recycling (27-35%,
or an average of about 30%. )
In 1973 about 723,000 new cars were registered in Illinois. [2]
If these were made from 100% recycled metals,* approximately 30% of the
normal energy of manufacture could have been saved. This totals 0. 67%
of Illinois' energy budget. Of course much of this energy would be saved
outside of Illinois, since steel production is concentrated elsewhere.
* Since the number of cars manufactured in the U.S. is not growing very fast;
there is not a practical limit to the number of cars available for recycle. Also,
there is now a stock of junked cars from past years. This contrasts with the
situation for aluminum in Section 5-B.
69
References - Section 5-D
1. R.S. Berry and M. Fels, "The Production and Consumption of
Automobiles", report to the Illinois Institute for Environmental
Quality, July, 1972.
2. 1973-7^ Automobile Facts and Figures Motor Vehicle Manufacturers
Association of the U.S.,
TO
6. Energy Savings by Modal Shifts in Passenger Transportation Between
Selected Illinois Cities.
A. For Illinois in general.
Intercity plane and auto trips within Illinois are seldom longer
than 250 miles and usually much less. For intercity trips not exceeding
this length, train and bus could be competive in total time with plane and
car. This is especially true for trips connecting downtown areas of cities,
where there are problems of transit to and from the airport if one flies, and
of finding parking and experiencing rush hour traffic jams if one drives.
Many studies have been performed on the energy intensity of passenger trans-
portation modes. There is wide variability of results due to many factors,
but a definite consensus seems to emerge: plane and car are the most energy
intensive modes of travel (See Table 6-1 )
We have therefore asked what energy could be saved in Illinois if certain
changes in ridership generally in the direction toward trains and bus
occured in intercity travel. (We have deliberately not dealt with intracity
traffic, for which much work has been done .)
In order to stay within the scope of our present effort, we have looked
at only the 9 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA's) in Illinois
(See Table 6-2 and Fig. 6-1 ) We have attempted to quantify present traffic
between them by mode and then have made "reasonable" assumptions about
future modal shifts. We note that these SMSA's all at present have connecting
tracks and roads, so that very little new roadbed, etc, is needed for the
shifts to be possible. (An exception is the Springfield-Champaign train
which would require a spur betwen two rail lines which currently cross but
don't connect). What would be needed, at the minimum, is upgrading of old
facilities (track) to accomodate the traffic especially so that the train could
run at reasonable speed and on time.
In Table 6-3 we present yearly data for current (1973 or 197*0
passenger travel between the SMSA's for air, rail, and auto. Bus data
proved much harder to get; we decided not to press, since this is relatively
unimportant because we wish to investigate shifts in the direction of buses,
not away from them.
71
The maximum total amount of energy at stake here is that now used by-
planes and cars for the inter-SMSA trips. From the data in Appendix 6 -A
we tabulate this in Table 6-3.
We find that this is only about Q.l6% of Illinois use (for fuel only, not
including indirect effects). Of this, the largest share accrues to the
automobile, which accounts for about 88% of the inter-SMSA passenger mileage
and 75% of the fuel energy used [h] The remaining energy (25%) is almost
exclusively for air travel.
Plane and auto show different geographical patterns, however (see Appendix
6-A): 79% of the plane energy for all travel between Illinois SMSAs is for
the Chicago - St Louis flight alone, while this trip accounts for only about
2h% of the auto energy and 31% of the train energy. The longer trip offers
more incentive to fly - no surprise. Notice the role of commuter aircraft
between Springfield or Danville and Chicago. We now compare energy saved if
certain changes in modal shifts occurred, but with no growth in total passenger
trips. In doing this we have used a straight "average" energy approach.
This is potentially inaccurate because of the question of changing load factors.
For example, new passengers on half-empty buses get a ride that's practically
energy-free ; (increasing load factors beyond those shown in Table 6-1 is
an energy conservation strategy of its own). Nonetheless the "average"
approach offers a good indication of energy savings, and, for the entire
state, was the best we could do without much additional data -gathering on
specific trains, planes, and bus runs.
In Table 6-k we list results of several modal shifts. • The radical
shift, completely away from planes and autos for intercity travel, reduces
the inter-SMSA travel energy by U3%, but knocks only 0.07% from Illinois'
total energy requirement. A more reasonable possibility in which 20% of car
passengers shift to bus and train, and 50% of plane travelers shift to the
train, reduces intra-SMSA travel energy by lk% and Illinois energy budget by
about 0.02%.
These changes are large as percentages of the inter-SMSA transportation
energy, but rather small as percentages of Illinois energy budget.
72
B. Two Specific Examples: Chicago - Springfield and Chicago - Champaign ■
These were chosen because they now have a large commuter plane traffic
(counting the Danville - Chicago flights) and because of the possibility of
Illinois state government influence over some of the traffic (State employees,
University of Illinois employees). Table 6-5 lists current energy use and
Table 6-6 gives energy savings from specific modal shifts.
From Table 6-6, we see that "reasonable" shifts toward train and buses
would reduce transportation energy for the two city pairs by about 10$.
A note on energy intensities: In the calculations in the
Appendix we used these: auto, 3000 Btu/pass. mi. intercity; plane,
10,000 Btu/pass. mi. (if anything an underestimate because of short
stage length in Illinois: See Table 6-1); train, 2300 Btu/pass. mi.;
bus, 1^00 Btu/pass. mi. We worried about whether a commuter plane's energy
intensity would differ radically, but after checking with Allegheny
Airlines about their Danville - Chicago flight, we realized that 10,000 Btu/
pass. mi. is reasonable for the commuter flights , too.
73
Table 6-1 Energy Intensities for Passenger Travel (direct use)'
Mode
Btu/pass.mi
if load
factor 100$
Actual Load
Factor
Actual
Btu/pass.mi
c)
. Urban , >,
Auto _ . ., b)
Intercity
Urban >.
Bus _ . . , c)
Intercity
m . Electric commuter
Train _ . .. c)
Intercity
Scheduled fi.00 mi.
lane Stage Length/200 mi.
pOO mi.
e)
Commuter
(15 pass, 130 miles)
2300
1700
900
700
600
900
8500
6000
1+000
1+250
1.9
2.9
f)
f)
31%
31%
50%
5200
3000
3000
1U00
2000
2300
17000
12000
8000
8500
a) Total energy impact may be as much as 70$ higher than amount shown here due
to indirect effects (manufacture of car, plane, etc.)
b) For average car, which gets about 13 mpg. in average driving. See ref. 1
c) Ref. 2
d) Note difference between stage, (or "hop1' ) and trip length. Mucn energy
is needed in taking off . ( Ref. 3)> so that airplane energy intensiveness
is much higher for short hops.
e) Data given are for Allegheny Airlines Commuter operations in Illinois
and Indiana. The plane is a 2 engine Beech 99- Allegheny's load factor
averages kh%, with 60% for the Danville-Chicago run (Albert Tingley,
Allegheny Airlines, Terre Haute, Indiana, phone conversation 22 October,
197^).
Passengers per car including driver.
f)
7^
ILLINOIS
Counties, Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas, and Selected Places
10
ROCKFORD
JO OAVIC&S I ITt'MIMSON | . wi«»tt*GO I
O .» I*00"'
— — ^r
CUKOLL
KKKfOK)
OCLI
DAVENPORT ROCK ISLAND MOLINE
DC KAl*
O
CHICAGO \
I Jofj •>«»*; ton Hficwrs
.... t^n"oTn
®
0 *
a
LEGEND
Places of 100,000 Of more inhabitants
Places of 50.000 to 100.000 inhabitants
Central cities of SMSAs with (ewer than 50.000 inhabitants
Places of 25.000 to 50.000 inhabitants outside SMSAs
Standard Metropolitan
Statistical Areas (SMSAs)
10
Fig. 6-1 Illinois SMSA'
15-321
75
Table 6-2
SMSA's Treated in this work5
1. Chicago
2. St. Louis
3. Moline - Rock Island - Davenport, la.
k. Peoria
5. Rockford
6. Springfield
7. Champaign - Urbana
8. Decatur
9. Bloomington - Normal
a) Unfortunatly Carbondale is not considered as an SMSA,
76
Table 6-3 Current Inter-SMSA Passenger Traffic
a)
Mode Energy Intensity
(Btu/Pass.mi )
s. Trips/yr.
Pass .mi/yr .
Energy /yr.
%
do6)
do9)
( lo12 \
Illinois
I Btu. )
Energy /vr.
Auto
1
3000
1U0
1.6
U.9
0.12
Plane
10000
0.67
0.15
1.5
o.oU
Train
2300
0.36
0.070
0.16
0.001+
Bus
lfcoo
0*>
o.oiU b)
0.022 h>
0.0005 t
Total
1
1.83
6.58
0.165
a) Figures are from single years in period 1973-7^.
b) ¥e were unable to obtain good bus data and hence estimated bus figures
on the basis of air data using Hirst [l, Table 9 ]• Estimates are very rough.
77
Table 6-U Energy Saved by Several Modal Shifts
in Passenger Travel Between Illinois SMSA's
Measure
Energy Savings as %
of inter-SMSA use
Energy Savings as y
of Illinois use
Shift all plane
trips to train
Shift all auto
trips so that
one-half use
train, one-half
use bus
Sum of measures
1 and 2; a complete
abandonment of auto
and plane between the
SMSA's
Shift 50% of b)
plane trips to train
Shift 20% of auto
trips to half-train,
half-bus
Sum of h and 5
17
26
U3
8.5
5.1
13.6
0.03
0.0*+
0.07
0.011+
0.0082
0.022
a) Based on an average energy per pass. mi. approach; See text.
b) Roughly 60% of plane trips are for business (D. Pilati, Oak Ridge
National Laboratory, Personal communication, 22 October 197M
c) This allows for direct fuel use only. Indirect effects would increase
'these figures by ^0 to 70% (20% is required for the energy cost
of extracting, refining, and transporting refined petroleum products ,
for example. )
78
Table 6-5 Comparison of Types of Auto, Plane, and Train Travel
For Chicago - Springfield and Chicago - Champaign (yearly basis)
Chicago - Springfield
(a 190 Miles)
3 12
Passengers (10 ) Energy (10 Btu)
Chicago - Champaign
(= 130 Miles)
3 12
Passengers (10 ) Energy (10 Btu)
Auto
Plane
Train
Bus
Total
620
37 (12)
57
b)
0.36
0.06U (0.023)
0.02U
0.00091*
0.U5
760
20 (9.M
63
0.30
b rO b>c)
D'C; 0.026(0.012)
0.019
0.00038'
0.35
d)
(a) These are origin/destination. Flights to Chicago to connect with
flights out of state are not listed.
(b) Commuter airlines in parenthesies .
(c) Most of this commuter traffic is Danville - Chicago , actually outside
the SMSA.
(d) Rough estimate: See footnote b of Table 6-3
79
Table 6-6. Energy Saved by Several Modal Shifts
a)
in Passenger Travel Between Illinois SMSA's
End Points
Measure
Energy Savings as
% of Total
Transportation Energy
between end points
Springfield - Chicago
1. Shift all commuter
flights to trains
2. Shift 50$ of all
plane flights
to train
3. Shift 20$ of auto
trips to half train,
half bus
k. Sum of 2 and 3
3.9
5.5
6.1
11.6
Champaign - Chicago
5. Shift 50$ of plane
flights to train
6. Shift 20$ of auto
trips to half train,
half bus
7. Sum of 5 and 6
2.9
6.6
9.5
a) See footnotes a and c of Table 6-k
80
Appendix 6-A. Transportation data (auto, plane, train)
These are listed on the printouts. Sources are indicated.
Bus data unavailable.
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References - Section 6
1. E. Hirst, "Energy Efficiencies of Passenger and Freight Transport
Modes, 1950 - 1970" Report ORNL -NSF-EP-U1+, Oak Ridge National
Laboratory, April 1973.
2. P. Penner, "Energy and Labor Intensity of Intercity Busing",
Technical Memo No. 31, Center for Advanced Computation, University
of Illinois, August, 1971*.
3. D.A. Pilati, "Airplane Energy Use and Conservation Strategies",
Report ORNL - NSF-EP-69, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, May, 191 h .
h. The auto mileage involved is only about 0.9% of the vehicle miles
driven in Illinois. We can estimate that for the U.S. as a whole,
about 11% of the vehicle miles are for trips of 50-250 miles.
Thus we cover about 5% of Illinois' trips of that length by only
looking at the SMSA's. We do not have Illinois data to check this any
more closely. (Calculations based on p. 35 /'Transportation Facts and
Figures, 1972", Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association of the U.S.
Inc. Detroit)
91
7. Energy Conservation Measures Within the Illinois State Government.
7_A. Substitution of a Sticker System for the Present Throwaway
License Plate.
lU.5 million steel license plates are distributed and then
discarded in Illinois each year. If, instead, the plates were kept
for five years, and yearly registration were accomplished through a
sticker, we calculate that 6 x 10 Btu / year would be saved. This,
is about 0.0015% of Illinois' energy budget.
This assumes that the plates remain as new-used (2 plates/vehicle,
made of sheet steel, weight 0.18 lb. per plate) and that the stickers are
similar to those used in Indiana (l/vehicle, 3 sq. inches). It also
assumes that the energy cost of administering the motor vehicle
registration program is unchanged.
Other variations on this policy can be imagined (why not 1
registration plate per vehicle instead of 2?), but the energy saved
would be of the order of that obtained here.
7- B- Use of Returnable Bottles in All Soft Drink Vending Machines
in State Offices.
Currently vending machines in state buildings and offices dispense
containers of soft drinks, of which % are throwaway
cans and % are returnable bottles. If this mix were shifted to
all returnable bottles, Btu/year would be saved, which is %
of Illinois energy budget.
This assumes that a returnable bottle lasts 30 trips, which is
higher than average, but typical of institutions where the container never
leaves the premises.
ESTIMATE WAS CONTINGENT ON RECEIPT
OF BOTTLE AND CAN SALES DATA FROM
IOEC. DATA WERE NOT DELIVERED.
92
12 oz.
Savings per drink Energy Savings
N= No. of trips (% of Illinois use)
10 3300 Btu
20 3000
30 ^100
This calculation is based on work by Hannon [1] that accounts
for all energy used in transporting, working, etc., of returned bottles.
Elsewhere in this report (Section 5-C) we find that a state-wide shift
to returnable glass bottles would save 0.32% of Illinois energy budget.
Another example of the energy savings in returnables may be taken
from Chanute Air Force Base. The Base purchases all soft drinks, both
for machine vending and for distribution in their commissary, in cans.
This is 200 thousand cases (2k cans/case) per year. The energy savings
by going to returnables (for 30 trips) is 2.0 x 10 Btu/yr. or 0.0005%
of Illinois' energy budget, just for Chanute.
7_C. Energy Saved by Considering "Life Cost" Rather Than "First Cost"
of an Appliance.
«
1. General comments.
Improved efficiency of appliances means less energy is needed for
operation, with resulting lower operational dollar cost as
well. Even though a more efficient appliance may cost more initially,
for many appliances, increasing the efficiency does decrease total cost.
Hence the practice of minimizing life dollar cost (or annual dollar
cost over the lifetime) is a viable energy conservation strategy. We
outline a procedure for calculating annual dollar and energy requirments,
and apply it to air conditioners.
Life cost is the sum of costs for manufacturing, operation,
maintenance and disposal. Here we will borrow from the United States
General Services Administration (GSA) and consider only the first two
costs (GSA argues that maintenance dollar cost is fixed because their
maintenance workers are employed anyway. In any case, maintenance costs
93
are very difficult to compute. Perhaps from a practical standpoint, one
should require a minimum maintenance standard for all appliances of a given
type to be considered. Disposal cost usually is negligible - or, it's the
same for all appliances of the given type).
The dollar cost is complicated by the interest rate and the
possibility of increasing energy prices. We calculate annual
cost (which is equivilent to life cost for the purpose of comparing
different devices ) :
Dollars: Operational cost + Amortized initial cost
Energy: Operational energy + — (Manufacturing energy)
where N is the lifetime in years.
In Appendix 7-C-l we detail the amortization calculation for
dollar cost. The role of the interest rate is to make it relatively
expensive to pay more initially in return for operational savings
later, which sometimes seems to indicate a mild collision between dollar
enonomy and energy conservation.
No interest rate exists for energy cost.
To perform the calculation, we need the following data:
a. Capital dollar cost. This is converted to manufacturing energy
cost by use of energy intensities contained in reference 2.
Roughly speaking, 60 thousand Btu per dollar is a good average value.
b. Operational energy. From the vendor. In the case of air conditioners
we had to calculate this ourselves from more fundamental data (See
Appendix 7-C-2) but this is usually not necessary. This must be
corrected to primary energy (to account for losses such as in power
plants). Ref. 2 contains conversion factors; for electricity we
use 13276 Btu/kwhr.
Dollar operational cost is obtained by multiplying by average
energy price.
c. Bank interest rate or the assumed interest rate. GSA uses 10$;
in our calculation we used several values.
d. Lifetime of device. GSA uses 7 years; so did we.
We found that getting consistent dollar cost and operational
energy data at present is difficult, and hence have analyzed only
air conditioners. If this approach is used for future policy, we
suggest that either: v
9^
1. the appropriate Illinois office tool up to do
this kind of calculation itself and obtain the data, or
2. the office requires vendors to perform the calculation.
In either case, the Illinois office will need to understand the
details of the method.
2. Application to air conditioning.
In Table 7-C-l (the computer printout) we list dollar and energy-
cost calculations for 5 different models of each of 6 sizes of room air
conditioner. An explanation of printout is given in Table 7-C-2. The
basic data source is Ref . 3. These data are at least 3 years old and prices
have probably changed greatly. Also, prices given are probably different than
those an Illinois State agency would pay. Therefore, the results are only
indicative.
We will illustrate for a li+,000 Btu air conditioner. From
the printout, we see that the most expensive (based on original cost)
air conditioner (Option k, capital cost = $370) also has the highest EER
(= 9.9) (This is not always true.) As a result it has the lowest energy
cost, 35.6% below that of the cheapest (Option 2, capital cost = $290).
For the unrealistic case of free bank loans (r = 0.00), and no increase
in energy price (s = 0.00), Option h also has the lowest annual dollar cost
(9.8% less than Option 2, which was cheapest initially).
For the GSA case of r = 0.10 (10$), s = 0.00, all options naturally
have a higher annual dollar cost than without interest. Option h is no
longer the least costly on this basis, though it is nearly so.
If we now allow the price of electricity to increase at 10$ per year .
(r = 0.10,s = 0.10), which means a doubling in 7 years, the annual cost
increases again, but now Option h is again lowest in dollar cost.
Most calculations of this type in the past have used 6 = 0.00, i.e.,
have not tried to account for rising energy prices. We feel they should be
accounted for. Obviously, rising energy prices will increase the economic
viability of energy conservation.
95
As a last point, ve ask, "Suppose we picked the device with the lowest
annual dollar cost in each of the air conditioner sizes - how much energy
would be saved over the device with lowest first dollar cost? In Table
7-C-3 we make the comparison. In all cases energy is saved. For the
larger sizes, savings are around 25%. In most, but not all cases, this
simple strategy also yields the maximum energy savings.
96
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103
Table 7-C-3. Energy Saved by Using Lowest Annual Dollar Cost
a)
As Criterion in Choosing Air Conditioner
r =
0.10
r =
0.10
s =
0.00
s =
D.10
Size
(Btu/hr)
Rank b '
c)
Energy Savings
Rank b '
th r~. C )
Energy Savings
{% )
6,000
1
10
1
10
8,000
3
k
3
k
10,000
2
23
2
23
12,000
1
26
1
26
lU,000
2
30
1
36
18,000
1
25
1
25
a) r= interest rate on loan
s= rate of increase of energy cost
b) Rank in order of increasing annual energy cost.
c) Energy savings expressed as % of device with lowest
first (capital) dollar cost.
ioU
APPENDIX 7-C-l AMORTIZED DOLLAR COSTS
We include effects of bank interest rate and increasing
energy price. Let
C. = initial (capital) cost of device (dollars).
C = operational cost per year (dollars).
r = bank interest rate (per year).
s = inflation rate on energy price (per year).
N = lifetime of device (years).
p = levelized annual cost (dollars).
The object is to find the annual payment assuming the cost
per year is constant. One way to state this is "the constant yearly payment
over the lifetime you must make to a credit bank which covers all the expenses."
Thus
C1 (1 + r) N + C2 (1 + r)N +C2 (1 + s) (l + r)N_1
+C2 (1 + s)2 (1 + r) N"2 + C2 (1 + s)N_1 (1 + r)
= p + p (1 + r) + p (1 + r)
Apply the geometric series formula:
o -i n
2 n-1 a- am
a + am+am + ... am. =
1- m
to obtain
L (1 nN _ /, L n [ (1 + rf - (1 + s)N
p=<vC(l + r) +C(l + r)
I
r - s
(1 + r)N-l
If r = s = 0
Cl
P - -— + n , as expected.
N 2' ^
105
Appendix 7-C-2. Air Conditioner Calculation Details.
Hours of operation per year are estimated for central Illinois
(an average of Chicago and Kansas City). Data are from Ref. h and
correspond to a thermostat setting of 80° F. Following GSA, we
multiplied by 0.7 to account for office use (kO hour week) instead '
of residential use. KWh use was then obtained from
KWh _ hours rating (Btu/hr) i 1000
yr. yr. EER
where EER is energy efficiency ratio from Ref. 3. EER is measured
in Btus of cooling per hour divided by wattage. We worried about whether
this EER should be adjusted for seasonal effects, or for the question of a
continuously operating fan, but decided tc use EER as given. (These factors
can multiply the EER by from 0.7 to 1.2; See Ref. k ).
io6
References -Section 7
1. Harinon, B. "System Energy and Recycling: "A Study of the Beverage
Industry", Document No. 23, Center for Advanced Computation,
University of Illinois, Urbana. Revised March, 1973
2. Herendeen, R. and C. W. Bullard, "Energy Cost of Goods and
Services", manuscript, July, 197^.
3. Moyers, J., "The Room Air Conditioner as an Energy Consumer",
ORNL-NSF-EP-59, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, October 1973.
h. Letter, Roger Carlsmith, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, to
Alan Whelihan, USGSA, 2 August, 19lh.
5. Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers "Directory of
Certified Room Air Conditioners", issued quarterly, Chicago,
Illinois. This contains EER's but not prices. Not used as
a source in this study.
6. Peter Unger, U.S. General Services Administration, Washington, D.C, is
a contact in the GSA.
107
8. Energy Used/Wasted By Gas Yard Lights, Gas Pilot Lights, and
Instant-on Television Sets.
These three devices consume energy continuously whether or
not they are serving their primary functions. The energy is used
for convenience, for aesthetic reasons, or to achieve a lower initial
cost.
8-A. Gas Lawn Lights
Mr. Robert Griffith of the American Gas Association estimates
(phone conversation, August, 197*0 the current population of con-
tinuously running decorative gas yard lights in the U.S.A. to be
four million. Scaled down to the population of Illinois, this
would imply 220,000 gas lights, [1] each consuming 19.2 x 10
12
Btu/year [2] for a total consumption of k.2 x 10 Btu/year,
which is 0.10$ of Illinois' estimated current energy consumption.
(For comparison, a typical gas heated home uses about 150 x 10
Btu yearly for the furnace. )
It has been noted [3] that a decorative gas yard light could be re-
placed by a photocell-controlled electric yard lights of the same brightness
with a yearly saving of approximately 1.8 x 10 Btu per installation. An-
other comparison [4] states that each gas light consumes 20 times the
power of an equivalent 25 watt electric light bulb, at point of use.
Decorative gas lights thus cannot compete with electric lights on an
efficiency basis.
Assuming all lawn gas lights to be replaced with a switchable
electric lamp of equal brightness, 0.10$ of Illinois' energy budget could
be saved.
8-B. Gas Pilot Lights
About 1% of Illinois' energy budget is consumed by pilot lights, as
shown in Table 8-B-l. The question is "How much of this is wasted?"
The American Gas Association (AGA) admits the gas used by clothes
dryer pilot lights is wasted, since dryers are normally located in un-
h'eated areas, but it claims that only a quarter of the gas used by pilots
on water heaters, ranges, and furnaces is wasted. The claim for useful-
ness of the pilot goes as follows: any time the outdoor temperature is
lower than the "normal" indoor temperature of 68 , heat produced by the
pilot lights helps keep the house warm and reduces the amount of heat
L08
needed from the furnace. This claim is questioned by Consumer Reports
[6] which notes that pilots may actually require extra cooling in the
summer. Warren G. Harris and Seichi Konzo [7] (August, 1973, interview)
note that in modern homes heat from the furnace may not be needed until
the outside temperature is in the 50' s, due to insulation and heat given
off by persons, lights, and appliances other than pilots.
We list the savings possible if we accept AGA's views, noting that
it is extremely likely that the actual savings are higher. The results
are in Table 8-B-2.
Assuming AGA's values, we see that at least about 0.30$ of Illinois
total energy use is wasted in residential pilot lights. The actual figure
could be as high as about 0.1+5%.
109
Table 8-B-l. Energy Used By Residential Gas Pilot Lights in Illinois, 1973
Range
Water heater
Dryer
Space heating
Totals
Pilot use
per year
(105 Btu/unit)
35
22
31
70
Pilot use
for all units
c)
in Illinois
% Saturation 10 Btu/year
77.1
78.8
12.8'
Ih.k
9.96
6.ho
1.1*
19.2
37.0
Total primary % of total
Energy use primary use
12
10 Btu/year in Illinois
11.7
0.28
7.5
0.18
1.7
0.0k
22.5
0.55
1+3.1*
1.05
a) AGA's Robert Griffith says (July 12, 197** telephone call)
that half have electric igniters already. Therefore,
saturation is taken as half that in the census reports.
b) U.S. Census of Housing, 1970, United States Summary, l-(256), 111.
c) Equal to (use per unit) x (% saturation) x (number of households in
Illinois). Clyde Bridger of the Illinois Department of Public
Health estimates 3,692,000 households in Illinois as of July
1971*.
d) Includes the additional energy needed to get the fuel (gas
in this case) to the final demand (equal to the direct use x 1.17,
Reference 5).
110
Table &-B-2 Energy Wasted In Residential Gas Pilot Lights In Illinois
Pilot usage 1012 Btu/yr % Wasted 10 Btu wasted % of 111.
Range
11.7
Water Heater
7.5
Gas Dryer
1.7
Space Heating
22.5
TOTALS
25
25
100
25
2.91
1.87
1.71
5.62
12.11
0.071
0.0U6
0.0U2
0.137
0.296
a)
This assumes that one-half of gas dryers already have electric ignition.
Ill
8-C. Instant-On Television Sets
Instant-on televisions appeared in the i960 ' s and quickly attained
wide acceptance. A large tube type color set at tnat time without the
instant-on feature consumed about 660 kwhr per year, assuming 6 hours
viewing time per day at 300 watts of power usage [8] . The instant-on
feature fed a constant low voltage to the tube filaments to keep them
warm, incidentally prolonging tube life, but consuming 30 watts [9]
continuously whether or not the set was turned on. This amounted to
263 Kwhr/year for the instant-on feature of a typical set of the mid
1960's. Today's large screen solid state color television has no fila-
ments to keep warm except in the picture tube and perhaps the rectifier,
so that the set consumes only about 7.5 [10] watts continuously or 66
kwhr/year for the instant-on feature, compared to 200 watts [8] or
UUO kwhr/year for total normal power consumption. The instant-on feature
thus consumes less energy per set for modern televisions than for those
of a decade ago. No accurate estimate can be made about the energy
consumed by all the instant-on televisions in Illinois due to the lack
of information on the composition of the state's television set pop-
ulation. Articles on television receivers in Consumer Reports indicate
[11] that the feature appeared in the mid 60's and soon came to be
considered a "desirable feature". [12] Eventually almost all consoles had
it [13] but the magazine noted it was "wasteful of energy resources and
should be abandoned even at the possible cost of somewhat shorter picture
tube life". In a possible portent of future moves by other television
manufacturers, RCA announced [14] that they were discontinuing the
feature on all new RCA television receivers. It therefore seems likely
that this energy use will decline through natural attrition in the future.
While we are reluctant to try to give an accurate figure for the total
energy, we will state a rough one. Very approximately 0.05 to 0.1$
Illinois' energy budget is used today to power the instant-on feature in
instant-on television sets.
112
References - Section 8
1. Illinois has 5.5$ of the United States population (1970).
2. "Use of Gas by Residential Appliances," American Gas Association,
Arlington, Va. , November, 1972.
3. "PUC Bars Gas Post Light Use," Electrical World, 1 May, 1972.
h. S. Rattien, "Energy and the Environment - Electric Power," Council
on Environmental Quality, 1973, p. 30.
5. R. Herendeen and C. Bullard, "Energy Cost of Consumer Goods",
Manuscript, July, 19lh. This is a slight modification of R. Herendeen,
"An Energy Input-Output Matrix for the United States, 1963: User's
Guide", Document No. 69, Center for Advanced Computation, University
of Illinois, Urbana, II. 6l801, March, 1973.
6. "Gas and Electric Ranges," Consumer Reports, July, 197^+, p. 529.
7. Konzo and Harris are with the Small Homes Council of the University
of Illinois, Urbana, and are prime sources of residential space con-
ditioning data.
8. "Annual Energy Requirements of Electric Household Appliances "
EEA 201-73, Electric Energy Association, New York, N.Y., 1973.
As of August, 197^s this was their most recent version.
9. Consumer Reports, June, 1971, p. 365.
10. Consumer Reports, June, 197*+ s p. 32.
11. Consumer Reports, January, 1967, p. 11.
12. Consumer Reports, September, 1971, p.52U.
13. Consumer Reports, January, 197*+, p. 33.
lU. Consumer Reports, June, 197*+, p.*+33.
113
Review of Uses of Waste Heat From Power Plants and Coal Gasification
Plants.
Electric power plants reject 60% to 70% of their total thermal
input. Coal gasification plants reject 20% to 50% [l].
As discussed in Section 3, the temperature of the rejected
heat strongly affects its usefulness. The first question is, therefore,
how hot plant effluent can actually be. At normal operating conditions
(effluent at - 100° F) , today's electric plants provide these outputs:
fossil fuel, 39% electric and h6% hot water ; light water nuclear
reactors 33% electric and 6'7% hot water. These can be modified to
produce hotter effluents at a sacrifice of electricity-producing efficiency:
fossil, 11% electricity and 68% - U00° F heat ; nuclear, 10% electricity
and 90% - U00° F heat. [2]
We lack the expertise to attempt such a statement for coal
gasification. There are many processes; on the average one-half of
the waste heat can be recovered in the form of - 115° F hot water. [3]
This is a recovery of 10% - 25% of the original energy.
Forgetting for a moment the question of dollar cost, we point
out that a significant problem in waste heat utilization is balancing
the electrical (or gas, for a gasification plant) load with the waste
heat load. This has seasonal aspects; presumably winter needs for gas
and waste heat go together, while summer needs for electricity don't
coincide with waste heat needs (unless the heat is used for absorption
air conditioners). This is further complicated by the possibility that
the coal gas may be fuel for an electric plant, or the possibility of
on-site storage of gas at the gasification plant. As an example, a
student project showed that for a typical city, with typical present
electricity/heat requirements, using waste heat would save only 8% of
the total energy for residential and commercial electricity/heat . [k]
Dollar costs of retrofitting structures for use of the heat
are. said to be prohibitive. We have made no study, but can believe it.
About 15% goes up the stack.
lilt
The Oak Ridge studies therefore looked only at new cities; they found
that residential/commercial use of waste heat from a nuclear power plant
would require population densities of 15 to 20 tliousani people per square
mile, and all within a 10 mile radius. [2] Some metropolitan power plants
sell steam now (e.g., Consolidated Edison in New York City), and there
are already some institutional centralized heating plants (e.g., Abbot
Steam Plant at the University of Illinois).
Otherwise, it is new installations that offer potential. We
suggest a few, although we feel no particular expertise here:
1. Heating/cooling systems for residences and commercial
buildings, especially apartments and multi-family dwellings.
2. Agricultural applications:
a. Heated greenhouses. These have been demonstrated.
b. Aquaculture and raariculture. Catfish culture by the
Tennessee Valley Authority has been successful.
Oyster culture has been tried by Long Island Lighting
Company .
c. Heating of agricultural buildings, including those for
livestock. See Ref. 5.
d. Grain Drying.
3. Water quality:
a. Desalination - not a problem now in Illinois.
b. Purification of waste water by distillation.
h. Industry - higher temperature heat (between 1+00° and 500 F)
can be used in various applications in petroleum refining
and petrochemical production.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory has done much work in the field
of waste heat utilization. [5]
115
References - Section 9.
1. W. Bodle and K. Vyas , "Clean Fuels From Coal", Oil and Gas Journal »
Vol. 72, No. 31*, p. 73, 26 August, 197^.
2. S. Beale, "Total Energy, A Key to Conservation", Consulting Engineer,
Vol. XL, No. Ill, p. 180, March, 1973.
3. K. Vyas, Institute of Gas Technology, Chicago, phone conversation,
20 November, 197^. This is a general statement.
h. M. Molitor, "Total Energy and Energy Conservation", term paper in
Engineering 199 - H, Spring, 197*+. Unpublished.
5. M. Yarosh, et al. , Productive Use of Low Temperature Heat and
Waste Heat from Steam Generating Electric Power Plants (A Reviev of
the Technical Status and Applications), Oak Ridge National Laboratory,
ORNL Central Files No. CF 71-i|-30, May, 1971.
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